10个将决定2025年投资格局的主题

Scotiabank策略师Hugo Ste-Marie提出了10个将决定2025年投资格局的主题：

1. It all comes down to a synchronized easing cycle.
2. Abundant liquidity looking for a home.
3. U.S. equities: uptrend extends, but diversification needed.
4. Size trade: Will U.S. small caps hit a home run or grand slam?
5. Canadian equities: Banking on Financials.
6. International equities: A land of broken dreams.
7. Commodities: The shine is fading.
8. Bond market - 2024 Redux.
9. Factors to own in 2025 - Size in the U.S. and Dividend in Canada.
10. Factors to avoid in 2025 - U.S. Pure Growth

用中文来表述这10条如下：

1. 关键在于同步的宽松周期。
2. 流动性泛滥，寻找投资方向。
3. 美国股票：上涨趋势延续，但需多元化投资。
4. 规模交易：美国小盘股是否能大幅上涨？
5. 加拿大股票：金融股是关键。
6. 国际股票：梦想破灭之地。
7. 商品：光环褪去。
8. 债券市场：2024年重演。
9. 2025年值得投资的因素：重仓美股和加拿大股息股。
10. 2025年应避免的因素：美国纯增长股。

加拿大股息策略

In Canada, dividend strategies should enjoy tailwinds. Our Total Yield factor (dividend yield + net buyback yield) tends to outperform as well at times of positive growth surprises (this mostly comes from resource non-payer names underperforming). Still, we would focus on a different macro exposure to explain our preference for yield. In Canada, the BoC is likely to go for deeper rate cuts than in the U.S., which should bring back investor preferences from cash (yielding as high as 5% in May, now in the high 3%) back to income strategies (our SQoRE Canada Top 30 Dividend Payers currently yields 4.2%, with an additional net buyback yield of +1.0%).

在加拿大，股息策略应会受益于有利的市场环境。我们的总收益因子（股息收益率+净回购收益率）往往会在正向增长意外时表现良好（这主要来自资源类非分红股票表现不佳）。尽管如此，我们仍将关注不同的宏观因素来解释我们对收益的偏好。在加拿大，加拿大央行可能会进行比美国更大幅度的降息，这应该会将投资者的偏好从现金（5月份收益率高达5%，现在为高3%）转向收益策略（我们的SQoRE加拿大前30大股息支付者目前收益率为4.2%，加上额外的净回购收益率+1.0%）。

这30家公司如下：

Energy:

1. Suncor Energy
2. Imperial Oil
3. Canadian Natural Resources
4. TC Energy
5. Parkland

Materials:

1. Endeavour Mining PLC
2. B2Gold

Industrials:

1. Canadian National Railway
2. CCL Industries
3. Magna

Consumer Discretionary:

1. Canadian Tire
2. Gildan Activewear

Consumer Staples:

1. Empire
2. Metro

Financials: Banks:

1. Toronto-Dominion Bank
2. Bank of Nova Scotia
3. CIBC

Financials: Div. Financials:

1. iA Financial Corp

Financials: Insurance:

1. Great-West Lifeco
2. Manulife Financial

Technology:

1. Open Text

Communications:

1. BCE
2. Quebecor

Utilities:

1. Emera
2. Hydro One
3. Canadian Utilities
4. Fortis
5. Atco

Real Estate:

1. Allied Properties REIT

这里面有不少公司根本不值得持有，比如Canadian Tire、BCE和Allied Properties REIT。这是所有分红股的一大弊端，以股息（分红）作为最高优先级来考虑，而结合持有理由和未来潜力来考虑。