%\h*(increase|decrease)\h*\R(?!\R)\h*(?=\S)
%\h*(increase|decrease)\h*(\r\n|\n|\r)(?!\r\n|\n|\r)\h*(?=\S)
\x{00A0}|\x{202F}|\x{200B}|\x{200C}|\x{200D}|\x{2060}|\x{FEFF}
%\h*(increase|decrease)\h*\R(?!\R)\h*(?=\S)
%\h*(increase|decrease)\h*(\r\n|\n|\r)(?!\r\n|\n|\r)\h*(?=\S)
\x{00A0}|\x{202F}|\x{200B}|\x{200C}|\x{200D}|\x{2060}|\x{FEFF}
我之前观察到 Enbridge 股价和交易量有异常。现在我从 7 月份到今天的数据贴出来看。
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Adj Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | 69.87 | 70.01 | 68.83 | 69.28 | 69.28 | 12,112,752 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 69.32 | 69.86 | 68.78 | 69.69 | 69.69 | 10,985,500 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 69.51 | 69.66 | 69.05 | 69.32 | 69.32 | 9,887,000 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 69.65 | 70.09 | 69.35 | 69.70 | 69.70 | 8,253,000 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 70.45 | 70.54 | 69.42 | 69.70 | 69.70 | 10,314,600 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 70.21 | 70.83 | 69.60 | 70.54 | 70.54 | 9,921,500 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 69.50 | 70.23 | 69.20 | 70.22 | 70.22 | 10,780,200 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 69.75 | 70.25 | 69.41 | 69.76 | 69.76 | 7,222,100 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 69.88 | 69.95 | 68.90 | 69.28 | 69.28 | 6,481,400 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 68.92 | 70.23 | 68.80 | 69.80 | 69.80 | 5,677,100 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 68.95 | 69.37 | 68.76 | 68.83 | 68.83 | 8,392,500 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 69.45 | 69.80 | 68.71 | 69.36 | 69.36 | 8,020,900 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 70.39 | 70.91 | 69.12 | 69.54 | 69.54 | 11,253,400 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 69.51 | 71.53 | 69.41 | 70.47 | 70.47 | 12,933,500 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 70.96 | 71.48 | 69.03 | 69.49 | 69.49 | 14,706,600 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | 70.98 | 71.59 | 70.83 | 71.41 | 71.41 | 14,952,100 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 71.06 | 71.06 | 70.18 | 70.22 | 70.22 | 8,949,900 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 0.97 Dividend | |||||
| Aug 14, 2026 | 70.42 | 70.80 | 70.08 | 70.61 | 70.61 | 12,940,900 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 71.60 | 71.95 | 71.41 | 71.47 | 70.50 | 12,449,000 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 71.76 | 72.22 | 71.50 | 71.74 | 70.77 | 16,792,300 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 72.03 | 72.49 | 71.61 | 71.85 | 70.87 | 30,514,000 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 72.48 | 72.48 | 71.00 | 71.71 | 70.74 | 16,335,000 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 72.00 | 72.36 | 71.31 | 71.55 | 70.58 | 13,148,600 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 73.41 | 73.46 | 72.04 | 72.40 | 71.42 | 13,081,400 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 74.90 | 75.05 | 72.60 | 72.71 | 71.72 | 13,990,900 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 76.21 | 76.27 | 74.34 | 75.09 | 74.07 | 13,135,800 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 77.66 | 77.91 | 76.21 | 76.28 | 75.24 | 6,034,500 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 77.33 | 77.91 | 76.93 | 77.68 | 76.63 | 7,734,100 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 78.61 | 78.68 | 77.15 | 77.56 | 76.51 | 6,776,500 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 78.42 | 78.84 | 77.77 | 78.03 | 76.97 | 4,755,700 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 79.75 | 79.83 | 78.15 | 78.20 | 77.14 | 5,558,000 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 79.58 | 80.30 | 79.58 | 80.21 | 79.12 | 6,766,500 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 79.32 | 79.71 | 78.92 | 79.43 | 78.35 | 3,075,800 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 78.65 | 79.46 | 78.63 | 79.29 | 78.21 | 4,186,800 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 78.46 | 78.75 | 77.41 | 78.28 | 77.22 | 5,773,700 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 79.43 | 80.11 | 78.34 | 78.36 | 77.30 | 6,160,400 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 79.80 | 80.01 | 78.94 | 79.42 | 78.34 | 3,240,300 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 78.79 | 79.45 | 78.62 | 79.36 | 78.28 | 3,145,600 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 78.68 | 79.59 | 78.63 | 78.92 | 77.85 | 3,517,700 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 77.80 | 78.80 | 77.80 | 78.70 | 77.63 | 2,810,100 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 78.00 | 78.24 | 77.44 | 77.97 | 76.91 | 2,415,100 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 77.44 | 77.68 | 76.80 | 77.34 | 76.29 | 3,727,600 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 77.98 | 78.33 | 77.32 | 77.33 | 76.28 | 5,103,200 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 78.50 | 78.56 | 77.65 | 78.04 | 76.98 | 3,528,900 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 76.23 | 78.57 | 76.23 | 78.11 | 77.05 | 3,965,800 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 76.76 | 77.62 | 75.88 | 75.91 | 74.88 | 7,345,600 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | 76.74 | 77.03 | 76.50 | 76.70 | 75.66 | 1,090,000 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 76.13 | 76.73 | 75.51 | 76.72 | 75.68 | 4,569,500 |
将 8 月份和 9 月份每日的交易量与 7 月份对比,明显异常。今天盘后消息出来了。
第一个是收购消息,如下:
Enbridge to Acquire Tallgrass' Crude Transportation Business, Expanding Its Leading North American Crude Oil Franchise
Sep 09, 2026, 16:14 ET
CALGARY, AB, Sept. 9, 2026 -- Enbridge Inc. (TSX: ENB) (NYSE: ENB) ("Enbridge" or the "Company") announced today that, through a wholly-owned subsidiary, it has entered into a definitive agreement with wholly-owned subsidiaries of Tallgrass Energy, LP ("Tallgrass") to acquire its crude oil business which includes:
Under the agreement, Enbridge will acquire the business for cash consideration of U.S.$2.55 billion, subject to customary closing date adjustments, which represents an estimated acquisition multiple of 10-11x forward enterprise value to EBITDA.
Enbridge believes that U.S. crude oil production will continue to play a critical role in meeting global energy demand for decades and this transaction further positions the Company to lead this mission. Specifically, this acquisition provides Enbridge with a strategic connection between the Bakken, Powder River Basin (PRB) and Denver-Julesburg (DJ) basins through Cushing and complements Enbridge's existing Express-Platte system. The Company expects the acquired business to generate significant free cash flows, provide future growth and create opportunities for operational synergies over time across its broader liquids pipeline network.
"This acquisition strengthens Enbridge's position as North America's leading crude oil transporter and expands its footprint into the U.S. Rockies region," said Colin Gruending, Executive Vice President and President of Enbridge Liquids Pipelines. "The Pony Express system is a premier crude oil corridor connecting some of North America's most productive basins with key refining and market centers. These assets complement our broader North American footprint. As operator of Pony Express, we look forward to leveraging Enbridge's proven operational capabilities to safely and reliably serve customers across the system."
Pony Express is highly contracted throughout the decade with predominantly investment grade counterparties. Available takeaway capacity from the DJ/PRB remains closely aligned with expected basin production, supporting utilization and contract renewal expectations. The acquisition includes the PXP2 growth project, an incremental U.S.$0.3 billion expansion of Pony Express expected to increase capacity to approximately 515 kbpd. PXP2 is underpinned by take-or-pay contracts, is expected to enter service in late 2027, and, upon closing of the transaction, will be added to Enbridge's $41 billion secured growth backlog.
The transaction is expected to close later in 2026, subject to receipt of customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions, including clearance from the Federal Trade Commission under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976.
第二个消息是发行新股来筹集资金来完成收购,如下:
Enbridge Announces CDN$2.6 Billion Bought-Deal Offering of Common Shares
Sep 09, 2026, 16:17 ET
CALGARY, AB, Sept. 9, 2026 -- Enbridge Inc. (TSX: ENB) (NYSE: ENB) ("Enbridge" or the "Company") today announced that it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters (the "Underwriters") led by RBC Capital Markets and CIBC Capital Markets, and including Scotiabank, BMO Capital Markets, TD Securities Inc., and National Bank of Canada Capital Markets as joint bookrunners, under which the Underwriters have agreed to purchase, on a bought deal basis, 38,900,000 common shares of the Company ("Common Shares") for aggregate gross proceeds of CDN$2.6 billion at an offering price of CDN$66.85 per Common Share (the "Offering").
Enbridge intends to use the net proceeds from the Offering to partially fund announced acquisitions and to create financial flexibility to fund potential future growth opportunities. A portion of the net proceeds of the Offering may be temporarily used to reduce indebtedness or invested in short-term liquid investments.
The Common Shares will be offered to the public in all of the provinces of Canada through the Underwriters and their affiliates by way of a Canadian prospectus supplement (the "Canadian Prospectus Supplement") to Enbridge's short form base shelf prospectus dated September 9, 2026 (the "Canadian Prospectus"). The Common Shares will be offered to the public in the United States pursuant to Enbridge's registration statement, including a prospectus (the "U.S. Prospectus"), filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), and a prospectus supplement (the "U.S. Prospectus Supplement") to the U.S. Prospectus. Before investing, prospective purchasers in Canada should read the Canadian Prospectus Supplement, the Canadian Prospectus and the documents incorporated by reference therein, and prospective purchasers in the United States should read the U.S. Prospectus, the U.S. Prospectus Supplement and the documents incorporated by reference therein for more complete information about Enbridge and the Offering in Canada and the United States, respectively. Common Shares may also be offered on a private placement basis in other international jurisdictions in reliance on applicable private placement exemptions.
The Offering is expected to close on or about September 14, 2026. Pursuant to the agreement, the Underwriters have an option to purchase up to 15% in additional Common Shares by providing notice to Enbridge at any time until the date that is 30 days after the closing of the Offering, to cover over-allotments, if any. If the over-allotment option is exercised in full, the aggregate gross proceeds from the Offering will be approximately CDN$3.0 billion.
也就是说,Enbridge 宣布 C$2.6B bought-deal equity offering,发行 3,890 万股,价格 C$66.85,比今天 C$69.28 收盘价低约 3.5%;承销商还有 15% 超额配售权,全部行使的话融资接近 C$3.0B。这笔钱会同时用于 Tallgrass、此前 US$600M 的 Salt Creek 收购以及保留未来增长弹性。
盘后每股 NYSE 盘后 ENB 一度跌约 2.2%,这就是市场在消化这个折价增发。
《环球邮报》的这篇文章有点意思,Larock 先生的经验不仅仅适用于当下,大概率也适用于未来。我把他的经验总结如下:
但是在另外一篇文章里,Salmaan Farooqui 补充了一些其它看法:
两年期固定利率也是当前值得考虑的选项
除了三年期和五年期,目前两年期固定利率与三年期相当(约3.8%),同样明显低于五年期固定利率,是短期固定中的划算选择。
选择贷款期限时,应优先考虑生活规划和搬家可能性
如果未来有可能卖房或搬家,两三年期固定比五年期更灵活,不必被长期合同绑住。生活状况应该是比利率走势更重要的决定因素。
首次购房者通常更适合五年期固定
因为更长的期限能提供更大的还款稳定性,便于长期规划和分摊还款压力。
浮动利率虽最低,但要警惕加息风险
目前浮动利率确实最便宜,但加拿大央行只需加息几次,浮动利率就可能超过固定利率。在当前不确定环境下,很多人因此回避浮动利率。
对预算紧张的家庭来说,最低利率可能是首要考量
数据显示,2025年1月以来续贷的人中有82%利率上升,45%的家庭每月一半以上预算用于房贷。因此,选最便宜的利率有时比追求稳定性更实际。
先搞清楚几个缩写:
TMX - TMX Group Limited
TSX - Toronto Stock Exchange,多伦多证券交易所,股票主板
TSXV - TSX Venture Exchange,多伦多证券交易所创业板
S&P - Standard & Poor's,标准普尔,简称标普
今天是 2026 年 8 月 10 日星期一,股市已经收盘。
Enbridge(ENB)目前 3 个月平均成交量为 7,637,011 股,10 日平均成交量约 910 万股 。7 月 24 日 ENB 收于阶段新高 C$80.21,此后持续回落,到 8 月 7 日收于 C$71.55,短短两周累计下跌约 10.8%。
可以先在携程或 Google Flights 查询不同日期的航班,用于初步了解可选航司、转机地点和大致票价。不过,这些平台的搜索结果未必包括所有航班和所有票价,因此不能完全代替航空公司官网。
登录 BMO InvestorLine 后,点击屏幕右侧菜单中的 Notifications,再进入 ALERTS CENTRE。
Alerts Centre 顶部有四个横向导航选项:
首次使用提醒功能时,需要先进入 Preferences,填写用于接收 Alerts 的 Email 地址。
登录 Scotiabank。
注意:必须用 Scotiabank App
点左侧的导航栏里的 iTRADE -> Watchlists
再点 Watchlists 的下拉菜单里的 Alerts Centre,看到 Research Alerts 和 Technical Alerts。默认打开的是 Research Alerts。
全部是新一代的dudley lock,松紧刻度区组合是4+2
#1 差数是 24-36
#2 差数是 30-18
#3 差数是 12-12
#4 差数是 18-6
#5 差数是 18-18
#6 差数是 24-12
#7 差数是 12-24
第一个数和第二个数之间的差数范围是12-30;第二个数和第三个数之间的差数范围是6-36。
差数全部是 6 的倍数,大部分是 12 的倍数。
正面刻度盘上印有图片。其实我十分不喜欢这样的锁,很难看清刻度指针。
破解了 Dudley GS08134 给了我信心,让我也想尝试下面这把锁。改变之前尝试的思路,还是坚持用计算器。
这把锁锈迹斑斑。
这把锁的松动区间分别是:
每个松动区间是 2 个刻度宽,每个紧的区间是 4 个刻度宽,与 Dudley GS08134 一样的,松紧区间的分布一圈下来是这样的:2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4。
按照计算器计算,first zone starts at 5,那么得到的 Zones 分别是:
Simplifed zones 分别是:
除以 6,这是一个余数为 1 的系列。
尝试全部第一个数大于第二个数的组合,仍然失败。
第二个数大于第一个数的组合,还没有尝试。
耐心让我破解了这把锁的密码组合。
松动区间
一圈松紧分别是 2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4
按照计算器计算,first zone starts at 4,那么得到的 Zones 分别是:
Simplifed zones 分别是:
除以 6,这是一个余数为 0 的系列。
我不知道这个计算结果是否正确。现在新一代的 Dudley lock 一般都是 4 个松动刻度区加上 2 个紧的刻度区,一圈松紧分别是 4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2+4+2.
所以我不确定这个计算器对旧的锁是否适用。
最终密码组合是 42-12-35,不是 42-12-36。还真的几乎在这个系列上。
我是用 42-12 这个组合来不断尝试第三位数字的,在 36 上弹出来了,但是重新用 42-12-36 却打不开,用 42-12-35 打开了。
第一个数字大于第二个数字,这符合大多数情况。
第一个数字与第二个数字之间的差是 30,这个有点大,不那么常见。
第二个数字与第三个数字之间的差是 23,当作 24 来看,这个是十分常见的差数。
锁体
背面
锁底部,锁梁正对那面,印有序列号
正面
刻度盘:
锁体生锈很厉害。
+++++
顺时针转3圈,reset锁,然后拉紧锁梁,继续顺时针转动,转不到就松锁梁,然后再拉紧,再转动,如此操作,找到10个zones:
中间值序列:00-06-12-18-24-30-36-42-48-54
密码的第三个数字(代号 N3 )大概率来自这个序列。
这是固定在旋钮上的那个盘片的外轮廓。这些活动的区是槽口,槽口宽度只有两个刻度宽,第一次见到这么窄的槽口。
60个刻度的外轮廓是这样:2个槽口+4个突出+2个槽口+4个突出+......形成一个圆的四周。
那个真的槽口所在刻度就代表了N3。
或许全部密码都来自这个序列。
+++++
顺时针转3圈,reset锁,然后半拉紧锁梁,逆时针转动,找阻力点:
密码的第一个数字(代号 N1 )大概率来自这个序列。
无法确定哪个数字是 N1。 如何得出N1?
+++++
Master Lock 的官方网站上详细列出了 Dudley DYRP800 的规格,点击这里查看。这是一款“dudley® high security series lock with 3-digit number dial combination.”
Dudley 的最经典的 School Standard 的 DYRP7SP 密码锁是 0-59 的 60 个刻度,而 DYRP800 与 Master Lock 1500 一样只有 0-39 的 40 个刻度。DYRP800 从外观上看,在锁梁(shackle)上加了一个金属护罩(metal shroud),防止锁梁被线钳(bolt cutter)剪断或撬棍撬开(prying)。
它有自动扰乱功能(automatic scrambling feature),也就是说,锁上后,自动会轻微转动盘片,打乱本原状态。还有 BlockGuard anti-shim 科技。这两个功能在 Master Lock 1500 上也有这样的介绍。
仅仅因为外观上加了一个金属护罩就算作“high security series”吗?它的内部是否就是典型的 Master Lock 1500?还是内部有加强?
现在我拿一把 DYRP 800 来做试验。我完全不知道这把锁的密码组合。
首先,根据 Samy Kamkar 的方法来找 locked positions 如下:
Locked positions 分别是 2-9-19-26-29-36-39。密码数字十分有可能来自这些数字里面。
然后我们找 resistant location。这把锁的粘滞点十分明显,就是 32。
现在我们将三个数据填入 Samy 的公式:
我们得到了:
上面的所有组合都不对。
考虑 resistant location 可能出现一点点偏差,用 31 算出结果,全部试一遍,全部失败;用 33 来试,也全部失败。
重新来过。
确定 resistant location 就是 32,不用怀疑。认定它就是 Master Lock 那套体系,那么第一个密码试 32 + 5 = 37。
按照开锁顺序,先向右(顺时针)转至少 3 圈到 37,然后向左(逆时针)转满一圈到37,此时,紧紧拉住锁梁,继续向左转,会感觉到拨盘发出很多咔哒声,但是用力旋转拨盘,仍然能跳过大部分咔哒声。当拨盘转到某个特定数字时无法再转动了,这个数字就是第二个密码。这个数字很快就找到了,是 39,就此打住。39 不仅在 Samy 公式的计算结果中,而且也是 locked positions 之一。
此时指针停在 39 上,现在开始找第三个密码,轻拉锁梁,向右一格一格地转动刻度盘,拉到 26,锁梁弹出。26 就是第三个密码,它也是 locked postions 之一。
最终密码组合是 37-39-26。
我们来总结一下规律:
第一个数和第三个数并不是同余。第二个数的余数等于(第一个余数 + 2),这个符合规律。第三个数与固定在刻度盘上的驱动盘片有关,冗余度大,出现偏差十分正常。有两个数都在 locked positions 中。这些都十分符合破解 Master Lock 拨盘密码锁的一般经验。
我们继续来尝试。
第二个盘片的槽口大约是 2.5 个刻度的宽度。
第一个数 36.5-38 之间,第二个和第三个数不变,都能打开锁。
但是完全遵守同余规律的 37-39-25 或者 37-39-27 密码组合都打不开锁。
我们还可以同时半格调整两个数来尝试。其实就是三个盘片的槽口基本在一条线上,相差一点点都没有关系,按下锁梁的时候,只要缺口足够大,锁会压进去,自动调整盘片,从而打开锁。这个锁的标准密码仍然是 37-39-26。
这把 DYRP800 没有百分百遵守 Samy 公式,是否因为内部有加强?我不确定,因为样本不够多。如果大部分的 DYRP800 都如此,那么就可以确定内部有加强,那么真的是“high security series”。
今天是 2026 年 3 月 29 日,星期日。
标普 500 指数 2026 年 3 月 27 日(星期五)收 6,368.85 点,较上一个周五的 6,506.48 点,跌 137.63 点,跌 2.1%。
这篇文章讨论的重点,不是泛泛而谈 Dudley 的结构,而是围绕一组极具代表性的混搭密码 38-19-47,把实际判断逻辑重新理顺。真正关键的地方在于:你先要知道自己摸到的反馈究竟来自哪一个盘片,否则后面的判断很容易从根子上走偏。
我一直觉得,研究 Dudley 拨盘锁这件事,真正有意思的地方,从来都不只是“怎么开”,而是你会在一次次拨动之间,慢慢意识到:很多人以为自己在研究数字,其实研究到最后,面对的根本不是数字,而是机械。
探索 10 个物理有效区域与非唯一性数值的奥秘
当我们面对一把经典的 Dudley Classic 拨盘密码锁时,其表盘上精确分布的 60 个刻度(从 0 到 59)往往会给用户带来一种视觉上的误导,使人产生“每一个数字都代表一个独立物理位置”的错觉。然而,经过深度的机械拆解与逻辑论证,我们必须揭示一个核心真相:Dudley 锁具的内部逻辑并非建立在 60 个孤立点上,而是存在着 10 个特定的“有效区域”。在锁匠工艺和破解领域,这些区域常被赋予“粘滞区”或 Sticking Zones 的专业称谓。更为关键的是,最终开启锁具的密码数字,并不绝对等同于该区域正中间的那一个刻度。
视频 1 的文稿经过整理后如下:
A regular Dudley combination lock has 60 numbers on it. That would make you think the dial could go in any one of those 60 positions, but actually, there are only 10 different positions inside the actual mechanism of the lock.
If I pull on this shackle and turn the dial, you can see that in this case, it only moves between the 2 and the 6. (That looks like a 5 on the camera, but it’s actually the 6, don't worry.)
So, there are four numbers for each position, then a two-number gap, and the next position will also be four numbers long. In this case, it’s 8 to 12. The first one was 2 to 6; the next one was 8 to 12; and it keeps going around. There are 10 of those positions.
With that knowledge, we can narrow the number of possible combinations down to 1,000 (10×10×10). We can also remove the third number of the combination to make it a two-number combination, because you can just set the first two numbers, then turn and pull the shackle around the whole dial to see if it opens. Now we are down to 100 combinations.
On most Dudley locks, the second number is smaller than the first number. That narrows it down to 45 combinations. This is not true for all Dudley locks—sometimes the first number is smaller—but for most, the second number is smaller.
You could use simple math to find those combinations, but I wrote a script to save you time. The website is: https://sites.google.com/site/crackthatlock/
我在之前介绍过 Master Lock 拨盘锁。如果忘记了密码,怎么找回密码?因为 Master Lock 的市场占有率太高了,网上有很多文章和视频教大家怎么找回密码。我认为下面是最快最简单的方法。