高利率和高债券收益率 vs 高股价，怎么办？

读到了 Philip Fisher 在 1957 年写的一段话，正好应了一个景，契合了当前（2023 年）的环境——高利率、低价债券造成的高债券收益率和偏高的股价，普通投资者应该怎么办？Fisher 在几十年前就给出了答案。

Another basic financial trend has resulted from this built-in inflationary bias having become imbedded so deeply in both our laws and our accepted concepts of the economic duties of government. Bonds have become undesirable investments for the strictly long-term holdings of the average individual investor. The rise in interest rates that had been going on for several years gained major momentum in the fall of 1956. With high-grade bonds subsequently selling at the lowest prices in twenty-five years, many voices in the financial community were raised to advocate switching from stocks which were selling at historically high levels into such fixed-income securities. The abnormally high yield of bonds over dividend return on stocks—in relation to the ratio that normally prevails—would appear to have given strong support to the soundness of this policy. For the short term, such a policy sooner or later may prove profitable. As such, it might have great appeal for those making short- or medium-term investments—that is, for “traders” with the acuteness and sense of timing to judge when to make the necessary buying and selling moves. This is because the coming of any significant business recession is almost certain to cause an easing of money rates and a corresponding rise in bond prices at a time when equity quotations are hardly likely to be buoyant. This leads us to the conclusion that highgrade bonds may be good for the speculator and bad for the long-term investor. This seems to run directly counter to all normally accepted thinking on this subject. However, any understanding of the influences of inflation will show why this is likely to be the case.

经济的内在通货膨胀这个理念早在 1957 年已经根深蒂固。目前美国和加拿大的央行追求的稳定的年通货膨胀率是 2%。因此，债券已经变得不适合普通个人投资者的严格的长期持仓产品。为什么？高利率环境下，债券难卖，拉低价格，收益率增高，而股价偏高，徘徊不进，股息收益率低于债券收益率。此时是否应该转向投资债券？Fisher 认为对短期交易者来说，如果能准确把握买卖时机，这当然看起来不错。但是因为任何重大的经济衰退几乎肯定会导致货币利率的降低和债券价格的上升，保经济是第一位的，所以债券不适合长期投资。