“逢低买入”策略受挫，抛售搅动华尔街

‘ Buy The Dip’ Calls Fade as Trump Selloffs Rattle Wall Street

• The S&P 500 has gone 15 sessions without two days of gains
• Uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs is keeping some on sidelines

By Carmen Reinicke and Alexandra Semenova

March 13, 2025 at 12:00 PM UTC

‘ 逢低买入’ 策略受挫，特朗普抛售搅动华尔街

• 标普 500 指数已连续 15 个交易日未出现连续两天上涨

• 特朗普的关税政策让部分投资者选择观望

作者：Carmen Reinicke 与 Alexandra Semenova

发布时间：2025 年 3 月 13 日 12:00 UTC

In a few short weeks, President Donald Trump has started silencing the buy-the-dip stock traders who set the tone on Wall Street for the better part of two decades.

In their place are growing calls to lock in profits and sit on the sidelines while Trump’s trade-war chaos upends the economic outlook — and casts uncertainty over who, if anyone, will emerge as the new era’s stock-market winners.

短短几周内，特朗普总统让过去二十年一直风靡华尔街的 “逢低买入” 策略黯然失色。取而代之的是越来越多的声音建议及时 锁定利润， 保持观望。因为特朗普的贸易战政策不仅打乱了经济预期，也让未来谁能成为股市赢家充满不确定性。

“Buying the dip now is like buying discounted tickets to a show without knowing who’s performing,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments. “Unlike the recent path when buying every dip was reliable, the heightened uncertainty of tariffs and trade policy means investors could end up with either a blockbuster or a flop.”

Roundhill Investments 首席执行官 Dave Mazza 表示：“现在逢低买入就像买打折票却不知道演出是谁。过去逢低买入通常靠谱，而如今关税和贸易政策的不确定性让投资者 可能赚大钱，也可能亏惨。”

The sentiment is a sign of just how much Trump has rattled Wall Street’s once prevalent bull-market faith by moving to roll back the globalization that’s powered the world economy for decades and slash the government spending that’s provided a steady jolt of stimulus at home.

But as much as the policies themselves have been the return of Trump’s style — a scattershot approach that’s resulting in a dizzying cycle of tariffs that are called on, off and on again. And that volatility has shattered confidence that any bounceback — like the one that lifted stock prices Wednesday — won’t reverse as quickly as it appeared.

这一变化表明，特朗普削弱全球化和大幅削减国内刺激支出的政策，动摇了华尔街长期以来对牛市的信心。这种政策风格 零散、反复无常，频繁调整关税，使市场波动加剧，让人们对之前那种稳步反弹的行情 失去了信心。

“Uncertainty is probably here to stay for a while,” said Burns McKinney, managing director and senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group.

NFJ Investment Group 董事总经理兼高级投资组合经理 Burns McKinney 指出：“这种不确定性可能还会持续一段时间。”

That uncertainty has pulled down what had been one of the strongest US bull runs since the Internet bubble of the 1990s, one that was stoked by swelling corporate profits and speculation that America’s tech giants would lead the coming artificial-intelligence revolution. That drove the Nasdaq 100 Index to gains of 54% in 2023 and 25% last year.

这种不确定性 打击了美国自上世纪 90 年代互联网泡沫以来最强劲的牛市之一。那时，企业利润猛增，市场普遍看好科技巨头将引领人工智能革命，曾 推动纳斯达克 100 指数 2023 年上涨 54%，去年上涨 25%。

Even with rising doubts about whether valuations had run up too far, that rally had supported a buy-the-dip mentality. Last year, until late July, the S&P 500 went 356 days without logging a 2% decline, the longest such winning streak since the Global Financial Crisis, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.

尽管市场开始担心估值是否过高，但之前的牛市依然助推了逢低买入的风气。彭博数据显示，直到去年 7 月底，标普 500 指数连续 356 天没有出现 2% 的跌幅，这也是自全球金融危机以来最长的一段上涨纪录。

Since mid-February, the S&P has charted a steep pullback from its record high and is on the threshold of a technical correction, meaning a drop of 10% or more from its recent peak.

Despite some attempts to snap up discounted stocks — like Wednesday’s 0.5% increase in the index after two down days — the S&P 500 hasn’t notched two consecutive days of gains since its February peak. Already, that bounce is fading, with futures edging lower Thursday morning.

然而，自今年 2 月中旬以来，标普 500 指数从历史高位大幅回落，目前正 面临技术性调整，即从近期高点下跌 10% 或更多。尽管市场曾试图利用低位买入——例如在连续两天下跌后，指数周三小幅反弹了 0.5%——但自 2 月高点以来，标普 500 指数还没 出现连续两天上涨。现在，这波反弹迹象正逐渐消退，期货在周四早上也小幅下跌。

The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has similarly failed to see back-to-back up days since its record, and the gauge fell into correction territory in early March.

“Coming into the year, stocks looked overvalued by more than 10%,” said NFJ Investment Group’s McKinney. But, he added, “that doesn’t necessarily mean that suddenly we would just dive right in.”

以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数同样未能实现连续两天上涨，并在 3 月初跌入调整区间。NFJ Investment Group 的 McKinney 指出：“今年初，股票好像被高估了超过 10%。” 不过，他也补充道：“这并不意味着我们就该 立刻大举进场。”

No Capitulation Yet

市场未见全面恐慌性抛售

That’s in part because market watchers say they don’t see some of the signs that generally indicate a meaningful rebound rally is in the works. That includes what’s know as capitulation — or an across the board selloff that shows sentiment has gotten far too negative and is poised to reverse.

In fact, data from Bank of America Corp. show that clients bought stocks for a sixth straight week through last week. Junk-bond spreads aren’t at alarmingly levels. And the so-called fear gauge — the Cboe Volatility Index — shows volatility is increasing but not at red-flag level s.

部分市场观察人士认为，目前还没有出现那种标志性的 大幅抛售，也就是 “投降性抛售”——通常预示市场情绪极度低迷并将反转。事实上，美国银行数据显示，截至上周，其客户已连续第六周买入股票。垃圾债券利差也没有达到令人担忧的水平，而恐慌指数（Cboe 波动率指数）虽然有所上升，但仍未达到 警戒线。

“We’re now in capital preservation” mode, said Ted Mortonson, managing director at Robert W Baird & Co., who said the market, and particularly the technology sector, is also facing some of the usual spring headwinds. He said anyone looking to swoop in now hasn’t “been through some very ugly cycles.”

Robert W Baird & Co. 董事总经理 Ted Mortonson 表示：“我们现在更注重保全资金。” 他指出，市场，尤其是科技板块，正面临一些常见的春季 不利因素。他还提醒，现在 进场的投资者可能还没有经历过真正严峻的市场周期。

The attitude, of course, is far from universal, and even the latest round of growth fears hasn’t done away with the generally bullish 2025 calls from Wall Street’s market forecasters. Citigroup Inc. strategist Scott Chronert, for one, says the recent pullback in the S&P 500 makes the risk-reward more compelling. And others are seizing on the chance to hunt for bargains.

“These are opportunities to buy really good stocks at much more attractive multiples, especially the tech names,” said Shana Sissel, chief investment officer at Banrion Capital Management.

当然，这种谨慎态度 并非所有人都认同。即使最新一轮增长担忧不断，华尔街不少市场预测者依然对 2025 年保持乐观。花旗集团策略师 Scott Chronert 认为，标普 500 指数近期的回调使风险与收益的比率更有吸引力；还有人正抓住机会寻找低估的优质股票。Banrion Capital Management 首席投资官 Shana Sissel 表示：“这正是以更低估值买入优质股票，尤其是科技股的好时机。”

Still, caution is always warranted for investors that are essentially attempting to time the market. While index corrections can be healthy cycles for stocks, sentiment could easily switch from cautious to fearful, setting up a much bigger market selloff.

“It’s hard to know when the bottom is,” said Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Catching the falling knife is never a good thing.”

不过，对于试图把握市场时机的投资者来说，依然需要保持谨慎。虽然指数调整对股市来说是一种健康的现象，但市场情绪很容易从谨慎转为恐慌，从而引发更大规模的抛售。“很难知道底部何时出现，” 彭博情报全球衍生品首席策略师 Tanvir Sandhu 说道。“抓住下落中的刀永远都不是个好主意。”

❀❀❀❀❀

今天是 2025 年 3 月 13 日周四，标普 500 指数盘中最低 5,504.65 点，跌破了 3 月 11 日周二的盘中最低点 5,528.41 点。

2 月 19 日周三的盘中 最高点是 6,147.43 点，收盘最高点是 6,144.15 点。以收盘点数为标准，收盘低于 5,529.74 才算跌了 10%。

3 月 11 日盘中刚刚跌破 10%  就立即反弹，这些应该是自动算法交易造成的，最终导致收盘 5,572.07。

今天也是下午一点半左右从最低点反拉，离收盘还有一小时二十分钟，不知道是否还有转折。最终收盘 5,521.50，跌破了 10%。