Saturday, February 22, 2025

Key Characteristics of Achieving Financial Freedom

Key Characteristics of Achieving Financial Freedom

Yesterday, we talked about the common misunderstandings people have about personal free cash flow and concluded that if someone can survive two cycles in investment banking—roughly 15 years—and go through two major stock market crashes, they will have achieved financial freedom. Today, we will pick up from that point and discuss the path to personal financial freedom. If you observe the career choices of individuals from wealthy families, you’ll notice many of them choose to join investment banks. Similarly, talented graduates from ordinary backgrounds often see investment banking as their top career choice. In reality, a career in investment banking is no easy feat; it is grueling in the early stages, and the attrition rate is high. So why do so many people still rush to join this industry? The answer is that after struggling for more than a decade, surviving the tough early years and economic crises, the road ahead becomes smooth and stable for the rest of your life.

How Do People in Investment Banks Make Money?

First, let’s take a look at how people in investment banks make money. Investment banks differ from regular banks. Before the 2008 financial crisis, they weren’t even considered banks but rather investment firms managing money for the wealthy and institutions. It was only after the crisis—due to concerns about risky financial operations—that they were reclassified as banks for better regulation. However, their business model did not change; they still don’t accept small individual deposits. Instead, they invest money from wealthy clients and institutions, charging an annual service fee ranging from 0.5% to 2% of the assets under management. It’s easy to imagine that if your team manages $1 billion in assets at a 1% management fee, that would generate $10 million in annual revenue. With relatively low costs—perhaps around $2 to $3 million—the remainder is free cash flow for the team. Although not all teams manage such large sums, even managing $300–$500 million can generate significant income; typically, it takes just 10 to 20 clients to accumulate that much. If you manage well and earn an 8% return for your clients every year after fees, their assets will double every 10 years, and your management fees will grow proportionally. However, in the event of an economic crisis, the assets managed by many investment banks can lose half of their value. The loss is borne by the clients, while fund managers do not lose a penny. Of course, many clients will want to withdraw their funds in such cases, and many fund managers may lose their jobs. Yet the withdrawn funds eventually return to the financial market, giving those who survive a chance to manage double the funds, resulting in double the cash flow. As long as you hang on—whether you are a fund manager or a wealth manager—you’ll earn a fortune, and this cash flow keeps coming in every year. You don’t need to do anything extra; your clients’ wealth just grows as the stock market rises. In other words, whether you’re sleeping or on vacation, cash keeps flowing in. Viewed this way, working in investment banking seems like a great business with guaranteed income and free cash flow that just keeps coming. However, as with any lucrative opportunity, the competition is fierce. Even heirs from wealthy families compete for entry-level positions, and whether you survive depends a lot on luck. Moreover, with computers assisting in trading, the number of new hires in investment banking keeps shrinking, making it harder to get in.

Key Features of Achieving Financial Freedom

We used investment banking as an example to illustrate the characteristics of ways to achieve personal financial freedom.

First, the longer you work, the more cash flow you generate. Wealth managers and investment banks achieve this because assets typically continue to appreciate over time even if you do nothing. As you survive through several market cycles, you’ll end up managing more and more money. Many people face a midlife crisis at age 35, feeling that they have lost their competitive edge in the workforce. However, in the investment field, the older you get, the more valuable you become. This pattern is similar to industries such as healthcare, law, and accounting in the US. For example, healthcare professionals—including general practitioners, dentists, and ophthalmologists—may have few patients when they are new, but after a few years, with a good reputation, their patients become loyal. I have had the same family doctor for 15 years and the same dentist for 15 years, and an optometrist for 20 years. Once these professionals have a steady stream of patients, their cash flow keeps coming in.

Second, you must have a core competitive advantage. In investment banking, whether you can survive financial crises depends on your investment returns and risk control abilities, which are the most important competitive factors. Although this may sound simple, it is extremely difficult in practice. Often, if a fund manager experiences two or three years of good returns, they may feel invincible and start taking riskier moves or altering their strategy, which can lead to failure during a financial crisis. Many people cannot overcome their own greed; the success or failure of an investment often depends on human nature. The technical aspects of investing are not hard to learn, but overcoming personal weaknesses is something that many people never manage to do, and consequently, they are eliminated.

Third, a stable cash flow job is generally independent of the economic cycle. Most professionals in stable fields earn income that is not heavily dependent on economic fluctuations, even though investment banking income does fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, there are both good and bad years, but if you survive, your future earnings can be even higher. At least, we do not see any instance where an entire industry disappears after a financial crisis. Jobs without stable cash flow tend to be more affected by economic cycles. For example, consider how different the tech products we use today are from those of 10 years ago; people who relied on outdated technology must retrain or leave the industry entirely.

Before I conclude, I’d like to share my father’s experience. By today’s standards, he might not be considered absolutely wealthy, but to some extent, he was financially free—as long as he didn’t spend extravagantly, he didn’t need to worry about money. His primary source of income wasn’t a salary but royalties from patent transfers. I remember that every time he transferred a patent, it generated a new stream of income that lasted for many years. As his patent portfolio grew, his royalties increased, and it truly felt like he was making money even while sleeping.

Conclusion

In summary, the key points regarding financial freedom are as follows:

  1. Free Cash Flow: Financial freedom is essentially having free cash flow far exceeding your expenses, so you never need to worry about money, and ideally, your wealth keeps growing.
  2. Continuous Income: Just having paper wealth or a high income is not enough; you need a continuous flow of cash that does not require additional investment.
  3. Competitive Advantage: To achieve personal financial freedom, you must secure a unique competitive advantage so that the work you do becomes more valuable over time, with minimal impact from economic cycles.
  4. Overcoming Additional Investment Costs: One often overlooked aspect is that additional investments can erode your income and profits, potentially leaving you with nothing in the end.

These features, exemplified by the investment banking model, illustrate a pathway toward personal financial freedom.

Why Most People Fail to Achieve Financial Freedom

Why Most People Fail to Achieve Financial Freedom

Before discussing how individuals can achieve financial freedom, let’s look at three examples to understand why most people fail to achieve it. Three types of people who cannot achieve financial freedom:

The First Example

The first example summarizes the experiences of many people around me. Let's imagine a fictional protagonist who is a technical expert or a professional in a similar field, such as a skilled salesperson. This person hears stories about others making a fortune through companies' IPOs and getting rich from the stock market, so they join a promising startup, receiving a considerable amount of stock options. As the company raises more funds, its valuation increases and the protagonist's paper wealth grows; however, only 2 to 3% of startups make it to IPO or get acquired at a high price, and of those IPOs, less than 5% turn into high-growth star companies. Most of these companies, after several rounds of funding, either close down quietly or become stagnant, and the protagonist's paper wealth shrinks as the company stock becomes worthless. Sometimes even a better-quality startup may get acquired by a big company, but even as an early employee, the protagonist's gains are limited—usually to just one or two years' worth of salary. Considering the reduced salary and benefits when they first join, the protagonist's overall earnings are often on par with those of other workers in the same industry with similar experience. At this point, the protagonist faces two choices: either stay with the larger company or try their luck with another new startup, and many people in Silicon Valley would choose the latter, leading their wealth to rise and fall again.

The Second Example

The second example comes from a combination of interviews and reports I’ve seen online, along with examples from people I know. The protagonist comes from a modest background but was outstanding academically and worked hard to attend a top university in a big city. After years of effort, they made it to a senior position at a large company with a million-dollar annual salary, enjoying what seems like midlife success. Today, many high school students who are busy studying and young professionals striving in their careers likely see becoming such a person as their ultimate goal. Once in the company's executive ranks, this person's job requires frequent business trips, family vacations, occasional overseas travel, and stays in five-star hotels. They also deal with numerous social events, often toasting and networking, and feel a sense of accomplishment. Then one day, they are suddenly laid off, or the company shuts down. The protagonist realizes they have very little savings; their largest asset is their house, which they cannot sell as it would mean a future of uncertainty. The next significant asset is the stock options given by the company, but due to the company’s downturn, these are worthless. As for luxury jewelry and clothing, these cannot be liquidated either. When the mortgage is due, they realize that the house and car have become burdens, and if their children attend a private school, they may even struggle to pay the tuition. Even if they want to simplify their lives and stop spending on luxury items, they find it impossible, as many of those expenses were seen as investments in their future earnings—stopping such expenditures would mean never being able to earn that level of income again.

The Third Example

Finally, let’s look at the third example. This protagonist is a successful business owner. They are entrepreneurial, love learning, and are more diligent than others. They built their business over many years and now hold great influence within the company. The protagonist understands the ins and outs of the business but does not trust the people around them, so the company is run more by personal management than by structured systems. As the number of employees grows, the protagonist becomes busy with daily operations and lacks the time and energy to study broader market trends; as a result, it’s difficult to keep up with the industry’s evolving direction. Being a part of a larger industry chain, the protagonist’s company has a constant flow of orders and income, but the profits are minimal since the competition is fierce. After many years, the company still lacks brand influence and innovation. The business earns well on active days but sees little to no income on days off, and the operational costs remain. Since the business’s success is largely due to the protagonist’s personal capabilities, they are reluctant to entrust the business to their child or subordinates. The protagonist ends up like a person wearing red ballet shoes—constantly moving but never able to stop. Although money seems plentiful, it's not real freedom, as halting operations means everything disappears.

Problem Analysis

So, what went wrong for the protagonists in these three examples?

The problem with the first protagonist is easy to analyze. They misunderstood the difference between paper wealth and real wealth. Based on an incomplete survey of mine and other investors I know, private equity funds in the US that invested in China over the past decade have been lucky to recoup half of their investment; the return from venture capital in China has been even lower. Even though some investors make money, the percentage is very small. Given that most investors didn't earn profits, it's no surprise that those who rely on stock options from startups cannot turn their paper wealth into real wealth. What's worse, many of these startups attract employees with non-quantifiable promises, such as titles like Director or Vice President, or by dangling grand visions. When the company is doing well, it feels like a feast, but when things turn bad, it all collapses, and the protagonist realizes they've gained nothing.

The second protagonist's situation is more common. Their primary income consists of salary and bonuses. For most high-income earners, a $1 million salary after taxes and social expenses may leave them with only half of that. Many would wonder why I set this protagonist's background as modest, but this is because, for them, a $1 million salary seems like an amount they could never spend. However, maintaining their high-status lifestyle in a first-tier city—buying a good car, paying a mortgage, dressing well, and ensuring their family keeps up appearances—means there's little to no savings. It's like a company reinvesting its profits back into production.

The third protagonist shares a common issue with many others. From the outside, they seem successful, but their biggest problem is not understanding the difference between profit and free cash flow. As a business owner, they are constantly facing additional investment needs. Even if their financial statements show healthy profits, they spend a lot maintaining relationships with business and political contacts and managing their status. If those expenses stop, the business suffers immediately. So, how much profit can be converted into free cash flow? They may not even know. Ten years ago, I met some friends who were making hundreds of millions in profits annually—some even with net worths in the billions; however, today, when I talk to them, they can't even come up with a few million in working capital, and some have even been blacklisted. Their common mistake was thinking that continuously reinvesting in their businesses would always bring greater profits without focusing on free cash flow. A slight economic downturn turned their profits into losses and disrupted their cash flow. This is the same mistake the second protagonist made when enjoying higher earnings.

Experience Traps in Survival Laws

We've all heard the story of the farmer waiting for a rabbit. From God's perspective, the farmer's luck in finding the rabbit is random and should not be relied on for a stable income. If the farmer experiences this a second or third time, they might mistakenly think that this is sustainable cash flow. Bacon, the master of empiricism, warned us to be wary of being trapped by the ropes of our own thoughts. This means that people—especially those with decent incomes—often plan for their futures based on limited experiences, which may not hold in the long run. For salaried workers, salary is essentially free cash flow, and as they rise through the ranks, they earn more with society providing better opportunities. This is simply an assumption based on past limited experience and may not be reliable. In fact, when the companies that salaried workers depend on face difficulties, they too will be affected. In agricultural societies, it was common knowledge that after seven years of good harvest, there would be seven years of drought. This experience proved reliable, and in industrial societies, economic recessions typically occur every 8 to 10 years. Any successful business or individual must survive each crisis and take advantage of the opportunities left by others. One doesn't treat accidental good fortune as sustainable income. In history, even the most prosperous industries eventually see most companies disappear, leaving only a few to become industry leaders. People are no different. For example, in investment banking, half of the professionals are typically eliminated every 7 to 8 years due to major market crashes, but the survivors gain access to more resources. Surviving two cycles is often enough to achieve financial freedom, which I will talk about more tomorrow.

Summary

Most people misunderstand personal free cash flow in several ways: they confuse paper assets with real wealth, overlook the impact of additional investments on cash flow, and treat occasional luck as a predictable future outcome. Here's a final question for you: Have you ever mistaken past earnings or luck as a reliable long-term source of income for the future? Feel free to share your thoughts with me.

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

T4 Box 22 Income Tax Deducted

会计需要替公司 ABC 向 CRA 提交一份员工 A 在 2024 年的 T4 表。

T4 表中的 Box 14 显示的是 Employment Income,这个数字很直观;而 Box 16 列出了 Employee's CPP Contributions,也比较容易理解。但 Box 22 中显示的 Income Tax Deducted 数字,又是如何计算出来的呢?

公司 ABC 在发放工资时,会从员工 A 的工资中扣除其应缴的 CPP Contributions,同时公司 ABC 也会缴纳同等金额的 CPP Contributions,双方各承担一半。在 EI Exempt 的情况下,Box 18 和 Box 24 均为零,说明员工 A 和公司 ABC 均无需缴纳 EI 相关费用。

在如此简单的工资情形下,Box 22 的数值理应为零,那么为什么会出现一个具体金额呢?

原来,公司 ABC 在 2024 年向 CRA 缴纳 payroll remittance 时多支付了 X 元。会计解释称,这部分多付的金额就被记入了 Box 22,算作员工 A 的所得税预扣款。

也就是说,公司 ABC 多支付的 X 元被当作员工 A 的纳税抵免,这让人难以理解:难道公司 ABC 吃亏了,而员工 A 却因此受益?

ChatGPT 的回答是这样:

如果公司在年度 CPP 缴纳中多支付了,多余的部分通常不会自动退还给员工或计入员工收入,而是需要由公司与 CRA 协调处理。一般有以下几种方式:

  1. 未来周期抵扣:多缴的部分可能会在未来工资周期中作为抵扣额进行调整,即在下一次缴纳时抵减应缴的 CPP 供款。
  2. 申请退款:公司也可以直接向 CRA 申请退还多缴的款项,具体流程需按照 CRA 的规定提交相关申请和证明文件。

但是,会计的解释是这样的:申请退款需要等待半年甚至更久,且不划算;转为未来的 CPP 供款,还需要与 CRA 打交道。由于金额较小,便直接将其算作员工 A 的所得税预扣款,最终在 A 报个人所得税时,可减少应缴税额。既然员工 A 是公司 ABC 的所有者,X 元在下个财年的公司报表上直接作为员工 A 从公司的提取款处理。这样处理既简单省事,又无需额外与 CRA 交涉。

会计的特殊处理方法简单粗暴,但是把账做平了,任务也完成了。

Monday, February 17, 2025

Popeyes Canada 的一些优惠

为什么快餐连锁店的饮料(beverages)、配菜(sides)、饼干(biscuits)等小食价格虚高?首先,你单买这些,说明你急需买,图了它的便利,店家就赚取了超高利润。便利店也是如此。第二,虚高的小食价格便于与主打菜品搭配成套餐,从而降低套餐价格,让客户觉得占便宜。套餐价格比单买各单品总价便宜几元,但总体来说套餐价格并不便宜,仍然高。

我们不可避免地偶尔要吃快餐,所以必须了解一些常见优惠,聪明地花钱,花钱花得明白。

下面分析一下 Popeyes 的一些优惠。

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第一个十分受欢迎的优惠是 Big Box。现在的组合为 2 signature chicken + 2 regular sides + 1 biscuit,总价 $8.00 + tax。一年前有人对此 Big Box 做过视频评价,点里查看。六年前是 $5.00,一年前是 $6.99,现在是 $8.00。以前有 2 tenders 的选择,现在没有。从视频中可以看出,鸡胸和鸡大腿裹的面糊很多,面糊越多,其内的油也越多。

第二个十分受欢迎的优惠是 BOGO 6 wings。上周推出的优惠是买六个鸡翅,送六个鸡翅,需六个无骨鸡翅和六个有骨鸡翅搭配,只需 $8.99,但最低消费为 $12.00。加前一篇文章介绍的一个超值最爱菜品,如 Spicy Mini Chicken Wrap,或者一个配菜,比如土豆泥配卡津肉汁(Mashed Potatoes with Cajun Gravy),就足够了。

BOGO 是 buy one get one 的首字母缩写。

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类似麦当劳等,手机 App 上也有一些优惠,根据自己的需要选择。

例如,目前手机上有:

Group deal: 10Pc Tender Family Meal
10 Pc Tenders, 4 Regular Sides, 4 Biscuits
$32.99

Deal for 2:  12Pc Bone-In or Boneless Wings 2 Can Dine
12 Pc Wings (Boneless or Bone-In), 2 Regular Sides
$18.99

Deal for 2: Classic Chicken Sandwich 2 Can Dine
2 Classic Chicken Sandwiches and 2 Regular Sides
$18.99

2Pc Signature Chicken and Poutine Dinner
2 Pc Signature Chicken, Poutine, and 1 Biscuit
$11.99

Blackened Deluxe Chicken Sandwich Dinner
Blackened Deluxe Chicken Sandwich, 1 Regular Side
$8.99

8Pc Nuggets Dinner
8Pc Chicken Nuggets, 1 Regular Side, and 1 Biscuit
$8.49

Two Pies
2 Pies
$2.99

A Large Side
$5.00

对比最受欢迎的两个优惠以及网站上的套餐价格,这些优惠并没有提供太多让利,主要在配菜上下功夫让客户感觉不错。

另外,都没有配蘸料,难道是默认会给蘸料吗?

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Popeyes 还会通过 Canada Post 给每家每户发送纸质 coupons,这些优惠比手机上的优惠可能再额外让利一点。

下面列出截止到 2025 年 3 月 31 日有效的 coupons。

610 - 1,770 Cals per Serving, Serves 2
2 CAN DINE DINNER
$15.99+Tax
Includes: 5PC Signature Chicken or Tenders, 2 Regular Sides and 2 Biscuits

没有蘸酱?

这类似于上面手机上的 Group deal: 10Pc Tender Family Meal,但让利略多,但是下面的 2 CAN DINE TENDERS 更好一些。

300 - 660 Cals per Serving, Serves 5
10PC LEGS & THIGHS SPECIAL
$22.99+Tax
Includes: 2 Large Sides with 5 Biscuits

1,450 - 3,350 Cals per Serving, Serves 5
10 PC MEAL
$35.00+Tax
Includes: 2 Large Sides with 5 Biscuits

160 - 680 Cals per Serving, Serves 4
2 SANDWICH COMBOS
$19.99+Tax
Includes: 2 Regular Sides with 2 Drinks

710 - 1,750 Cals per Serving, Serves 2
2 CAN DINE TENDERS
$17.99+Tax
Includes: 6 Tenders, 2 Regular Sides, 2 Biscuits, 2 Medium Drinks and 2 Signature Dipping Sauces

只有这个明确说明了给两份蘸酱。

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Popeyes Canada 菜单

我之前居住了十几年的城市,只在市中心有一家 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen,而我住在城郊,因此那家店我只路过,没品尝过。现在我居住的地方,最近的一家 Popeyes 有点远,所在位置进出极为不便,且是车祸频发地段,所以我一般都去本来就更近、更熟悉的 McDonald's、Tim Hortons 或 A&W 等快餐连锁。另外,Popeyes 的主要菜品都与鸡肉相关,我不知道如何选择。最近我尝过两次 Popeyes,觉得还行,身边的人对它也赞许有加,正好在我附近的商业区新开了一家店,交通便利一些,也与我一周去几次的健身房在同一条路上,相隔不远。于是,我就决定研究一下 Popeyes 的菜单。

如果将鸡柳(chicken tenders)和鸡块(chicken nuggets)分类算,Popeyes 的食品分为十大类,分别是:

  1. signature chicken - 招牌鸡肉
  2. wings - 鸡翅
  3. tenders - 鸡柳
  4. nuggets - 鸡块
  5. seafood - 海鲜
  6. sandwiches - 鸡肉三明治
  7. signature sides - 招牌配菜
  8. signature dipping sauces - 招牌蘸酱
  9. desserts - 甜品
  10. beverages - 饮料

再加上近期推出的“超值最爱 ”(value favourites)经济实惠餐,那么就是十一大类。

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饮料(beverages)包括四种瓶装饮料和十种自助饮料。

瓶装饮料有以下四种,一律 $2.79 一瓶:

  1. Bottle Minute Maid Lemonade - 瓶装 Minute Maid 柠檬水
  2. Bottle Minute Maid Apple Juice - 瓶装 Minute Maid 苹果汁
  3. Bottle Minute Maid Orange Juice - 瓶装 Minute Maid 橙汁
  4. Bottle Dasani - 瓶装 Dasani 矿泉水

自助饮料(Fountain Drinks)有:

  • Coca-Cola - 可口可乐
  • Diet Coke - 健怡可乐
  • Coke Zero - 零度无糖可乐
  • Canada Dry - 姜味汽水
  • Barq's Root Beer - 巴克根汁汽水
  • Fanta - 芬达
  • Fruitopia - 果缤纷
  • Lemonade - 柠檬水
  • Fuze Iced Tea - 富滋冰茶
  • Sprite - 雪碧

自助饮料分小杯($2.29)、中杯($2.49)、大杯($2.79)三种。价格都虚高。

除了 Canada Dry 是 Keurig Dr Pepper 公司的饮品,其余饮料全部是可口可乐公司的。富滋冰茶(Fuze Iced Tea)是可口可乐公司近些年重点推介的产品。

单买这些饮料的人,都属于钱多得没处花。

Minute Maid 这个品牌属于可口可乐公司,在中国叫做“美汁源”。

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甜品(desserts)有两种:

  1. Cinnamon Apple Pie - 肉桂苹果派
  2. Strawberry Cream Cheese Fried Pie - 草莓奶酪炸派

价钱都是 $1.99,这样的价钱能做出什么甜品?外壳派皮都是炸制的,也算是 Popeyes 的风格和独创,但不那么讨喜。

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招牌蘸酱(signature dipping sauces / signature sauces / sauces)有四种,一律 $0.39,分别是:

  • Buttermilk Ranch(酪乳牧场酱) - 传统牧场酱,无辣味
  • Bayou Buffalo(拜优布法罗酱) - 以卡宴辣椒(Cayenne pepper)为主,美国南部风味
  • Blackened Ranch(焦香牧场酱) - 调味料腌制后迅速煎烤,带焦香味,辣味适中
  • Wild Honey Mustard(野生蜂蜜芥末酱) - 加蜂蜜的芥末,甜味为主

很明显,拜优布法罗酱是 Popeyes 的特色蘸酱,而焦香牧场酱则为传统牧场蘸酱增添了风味。其余两种较为常见,虽然本人比较喜欢 Honey Mustard。

不知道拜优布法罗酱的辣味与麦当劳的 Habanero Sauce 相比如何。虽然哈瓦那辣椒的辣度是卡宴辣椒的几倍,但是做出来的效果不知道差别有多大。

“Bayou” 的标准英文发音为 /ˈbaɪ.juː/,听起来类似 “拜优”。这一发音中,第一个音节 “bay” 发音像 “buy”,而 “you” 则保留其常见发音。“Bayou” 源自法语,原指美国南部,尤其是路易斯安那州那种缓流的小河或沼泽水道。这些水道水流缓慢,环境常带有浓郁的湿地特色。现该词也常用来形容美国南部独有的文化和风味。在调味酱命名中使用 “Bayou”,旨在传达一种南部风情和独特风味的印象。

Buffalo,纽约州的水牛城布法罗,布法罗鸡翅十分有名,著名连锁店是 Buffalo Wild Wings,其酱汁以其独特的风味和辣度而闻名,是美式餐饮中不可或缺的一部分。

“Cayenne” 的英文发音为 /kaɪˈɛn/,听起来类似 “凯恩”。保时捷的 Cayenne 车型中文叫“卡宴”,是从原本的法语本源音译过来的。卡宴辣椒常被研磨成粉末,用作调味料,味道较辣。

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招牌配菜(signature sides)如下:

  1. 卷心菜沙拉(Coleslaw)
    • 常规卷心菜沙拉 – $3.49 | 190 卡
    • 大份卷心菜沙拉 – $7.49 | 740 卡
  2. 卡津薯条(Cajun Fries)
    • 常规卡津薯条 – $3.49 | 270 卡
    • 中份卡津薯条 – $5.19 | 780 卡
    • 大份卡津薯条 – $7.49 | 1,350 卡
  3. 卡津普丁(Cajun Poutine)
    • 卡津普丁 – $7.19 | 720 卡
  4. 洋葱圈(Onion Rings)
    • 常规洋葱圈 – $3.49 | 360 卡
    • 中份洋葱圈 – $5.19 | 975 卡
    • 大份洋葱圈 – $7.49 | 1,080 卡
  5. 土豆泥配卡津肉汁(Mashed Potatoes with Cajun Gravy)
    • 常规土豆泥配卡津肉汁 – $3.49 | 110 卡
    • 大份土豆泥配卡津肉汁 – $7.49 | 310 卡
  6. 奶酪通心粉(Macaroni and Cheese)
    • 常规奶酪通心粉 – $3.49 | 180 卡
    • 大份奶酪通心粉 – $7.49 | 570 卡
  7. 卡津肉汁(Cajun Gravy)
    • 常规卡津肉汁 – $2.99 | 150 卡
    • 大份卡津肉汁 – $5.99 | 350 卡
  8. 饼干(Biscuit)
    • 1 个饼 – $0.99 | 220 卡
    • 6 个饼 – $5.79 | 1,320 卡
    • 12 个饼 – $9.79 | 2,640 卡

Popeyes 的一个特色是在套餐中一般都会送饼干,所以一般不会再单独点饼干。其它选择中,土豆泥配卡津肉汁结合了薯条、肉汁等几种配菜的特色,应该是最受欢迎的一种。

会点蘸酱和配菜十分重要。

配菜价格也是虚高,单买也没有必要。

“Cajun” 的英文发音为 /ˈkeɪʒən/,听起来类似 “凯-zhun”,其中 “zhun” 的发音与 “vision” 中的 “sion” 相近。“Cajun” 指的是居住在美国路易斯安那州的一个族群——Cajun 族。他们的祖先主要是 17 世纪被流放出加拿大的阿卡迪亚人(Acadians),在路易斯安那州定居,并形成了独特的文化和生活方式。同时,“Cajun” 也用来形容与这一族群相关的文化、语言、音乐和美食,例如著名的 “Cajun 料理”,以其浓郁辛辣、风味独特而闻名。

“Cole”来自荷兰语的Kool,意为“甘蓝”。Slaw 指一种切碎的生蔬菜沙拉,但有时也可以泛指其他类似的沙拉,比如 Broccoli slaw、Apple slaw 等。

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海鲜(seafood)主要有两种。

第一种是蝴蝶虾(Butterfly Shrimp),是将大虾切割处理炸出蝴蝶状。

  1. Butterfly Shrimp
    (Butterfly Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce)
    $8.69 | 300 Cals
  2. Butterfly Shrimp Combo
    (Butterfly Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce + 1 regular side + 1 Medium Beverage + 1 biscuit)
    $11.19 | 630 - 1,550 Cals
  3. Butterfly Shrimp Lg Combo
    (Butterfly Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce + 2 regular sides + 1 Large Beverage + 1 biscuit)
    $13.29 | 740 - 2,430 Cals

第二种是爆米花虾(Popcorn Shrimp),小虾裹面糊炸制而成。

  1. Popcorn Shrimp
    (Popcorn Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce)
    $7.69 | 450 Cals
  2. Popcorn Shrimp Combo
    (Popcorn Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce + 1 regular side + 1 Medium Beverage + 1 biscuit)
    $10.19 | 780 - 1,700 Cals
  3. Popcorn Shrimp Lg Combo
    (Popcorn Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce + 2 regular sides + 1 Large Beverage + 1 biscuit)
    $12.29 | 890 - 2,580 Cals

来 Popeyes 主要是吃炸鸡,海鲜并非特色,并不是最佳选择,可以直接忽视。

下面回到鸡肉相关的菜品,这才是重点,虽然上面的配菜和蘸料也很重要。

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鸡肉三明治(chicken sandwiches)有三种,分别是:

  1. blackened deluxe chicken sandwich - 焦香尊享鸡肉三明治
  2. chicken sandwich - 鸡肉三明治
  3. deluxe chicken sandwich。- 尊享鸡肉三明治

每种都有 Classic 和 Spicy 两种风味。

Popeyes 的鸡肉三明治是由两片表皮金黄的黄油面包夹一块鸡肉饼、两片腌黄瓜和涂抹一些蛋黄酱(mayo),价钱是$7.99。

尊享鸡肉三明治则多加了生菜和番茄切片,比普通的三明治多了一元钱。

焦香尊享鸡肉三明治的鸡肉饼使用焦香调料,与尊享鸡肉三明治一样的价钱,$8.99。

腌黄瓜和蛋黄酱可选择有无。

每种都有常规套餐(额外 1 regular side + 1 Medium beverage)和大号套餐(额外 2 regular sides + 1 Large beverage)。

有些人,尤其是一些白人,专门把三明治里的生菜或/和番茄切片挑出来扔掉,那么普通的鸡肉三明治很适合此类人。

注重健康或者口味的人肯定选择焦香尊享鸡肉,它的卡路里低,但是蛋白质含量与豪华肌肉三明治差不多。

蛋黄酱的英文全称是 Mayonnaise,发音是 /ˈmeɪəneɪz/,读作 “梅-呃-内-兹”。一般点单时都简化为 Mayo,发音为 /ˈmeɪ.oʊ/,读作 “梅欧”。

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鸡柳(tenders)是由鸡胸肉切割、整形后经过多道工序炸制而成,分为微辣(Mild)和辣(Spicy)两种辣度。

3Pc 鸡柳的单买和套餐的搭配如下:

3Pc Tenders (3Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce)
$8.79 | 350 Cals

3Pc Tenders Combo (3Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce + 1 regular side + 1 Medium Beverage + 1 biscuit)
$12.29 | 680 - 1,600 Cals

3Pc Tenders Lg Combo (3Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce + 2 regular side + 1 Large Beverage + 1 biscuit)
$14.29 | 790 - 2,480 Cals

5Pc 鸡柳的单买和套餐的搭配如下:

5Pc Tenders (5Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce)
$13.29 | 570 Cals

5Pc Tenders Combo (5Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce + 1 regular side + 1 Medium Beverage + 1 biscuit)
$15.29 | 900 - 1,820 Cals

5Pc Tenders Lg Combo (5Pc Tenders + 2 Sauce + 2 regular side + 1 Large Beverage + 1 biscuit)
$17.29 | 1,010 - 2,700 Cals

更多数量的选项没有套餐选择:

8Pc Tenders + 3 Sauces
$21.29 | 910 Cals

12Pc Tenders + 4 Sauces
$29.79 | 1,370 Cals

16Pc Tenders + 5 Sauces
$38.49 | 1,830 Cals

20Pc Tenders + 6 Sauces
$46.79 | 2,290 Cals

12Pc、16Pc 和 20Pc 鸡柳还有 Family Meal,只是分别多价了 4、6、8 个饼干。

单只鸡柳的价格大约$2.30~$3.00之间。

一般来说,3块鸡柳的套餐是一个人的量;5块鸡柳的套餐是两个人的量。

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鸡块(nuggets)是将鸡肉切割成小块后炸制而成。在鸡块和鸡柳之间,我认为应优先选择鸡柳,虽然鸡柳肉质较干,但口感和肉质来源较为明确。当然,如果鸡块不是用鸡肉糜压制而成,且口感也不错,也可以接受。

单买鸡块时,有 8、12、24、36 块的选择。8 块和 12 块还有常规套餐和大套餐两种配置,这种大套餐称为拼盘(Platter),因为众多鸡块、蘸料和配菜堆满一个盘子。

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鸡翅(wings)分为无骨鸡翅(boneless wings)和带骨鸡翅(bone-in wings)。无骨鸡翅通常由鸡胸肉切割成块状或条状后加工处理炸制而成。Popeyes 称其使用精选的嫩滑全白肉,即鸡胸肉。鸡胸肉和带骨鸡翅均为白肉,而鸡腿和鸡大腿为黑肉。从制作工艺来看,无骨鸡翅与鸡柳区别不大,但在新一代年轻人中更受欢迎,推入市场的历史不长。带骨鸡翅则口感更丰富,较健康,因为无骨鸡翅在加工过程中增加了大量的钠和碳水化合物。从 Popeyes Canada 提供的营养表也能看出这一点。

无骨鸡翅和带骨鸡翅均有 6、12、24 块的选择,6 块和 12 块还有常规套餐和大号套餐两种配置。

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招牌鸡肉(Signature Chicken)包含鸡胸(breast)、鸡腿(leg)、鸡大腿(thigh)和鸡翅(wing),其中鸡胸和鸡翅为白肉,鸡腿和鸡大腿为黑肉。

8、12、16、20 块的配餐均为鸡胸、鸡腿、鸡大腿和鸡翅的组合。

2 块、3 块和 4 块的配餐只能选择常规套餐或大号套餐,且必须选全黑肉(即鸡腿或鸡大腿)或白肉与黑肉搭配。这也说明白肉较优。

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Popeyes 还有 “超值最爱” 菜品(value favourites),价格统一 $4.00。有些优惠增加了最低消费要求,比如 Popeyes 经常推出的 BOGO 6 Wings 优惠,买 6 个鸡翅再送 6 个鸡翅,总价只需 $8.99,但该优惠需达到最低消费 $12.00,此时加一个 “超值最爱” 菜品即可。

“超值最爱” 菜品如下:

  • Classic / Spicy Mini Chicken Sandwich $4.00 | 450 Cals
  • Classic / Spicy Mini Chicken Wrap $4.00 | 490 Cals
  • Fried Pickles $4.00 | 250 Cals
  • Blackened Cauliflower $4.00 | 310 Cals
  • 5Pc Nuggets $4.00 | 320 Cals

很明显,为了填饱肚子,小鸡肉卷和小鸡肉三明治是最佳选择。

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油炸食品虽然香,但不健康。炸鸡类食物偶尔吃可以,不能常吃。

Popeyes 的鸡肉,无论哪一种,都裹了大量的面糊,相比其它鸡肉店,比如 Wild Wing,鸡肉少很多,做得差很多。

另外,大统华的豉油鸡或盐焗鸡,整只售价 $12.99,既健康又便宜,还有吃鸡肉吐骨头的乐趣。还有卤水鸡腿。还新推出了奥尔良烤鸡、奥尔良烤鸡腿、奥尔良烤鸡翼。我认为都比 Popeyes 的炸鸡好。

股票资本利得税 vs 相应的股票回调百分比

假设你以100元买入某只股票,如今股价已经上涨不少。如果你此时卖出,就会产生资本利得(capital gain),从而需要缴纳相应的资本利得税;而如果选择继续持有,股票虽已大幅上涨,但未来可能面临回调。那么,到底该不该卖出呢?在很多投资者的脑子里,这是一个挥之不去的问题。这牵涉到许多因素,很多因素是不确定的,并非轻易能做出决定。巴菲特曾表示,一旦买入一只股票,最好能够长期持有。这是美好的愿望。有时我们必须做出取舍。因此,我们必须清楚明白:你需缴纳的资本利得税,其比例大致相当于当前股票价格回调的幅度。这些数字是确定的。

假设初始投资本金仍为100元。目前,加拿大的资本利得纳入率为50%,而2025年安大略省的资本利得税最高边际税率为26.76%,假定这就是你的税率。

以下是计算结果:

股票增长百分比当前市值资本利得资本利得税对应的股票回调幅度
50%150$50.00$6.69-4.46%
100%200$100.00$13.38-6.69%
150%250$150.00$20.07-8.03%
200%300$200.00$26.76-8.92%
250%350$250.00$33.45-9.56%
300%400$300.00$40.14-10.04%

在大多数长期投资组合中,比如持有股票十年左右,不少股票通常可以实现约100%的涨幅。此时卖出,所需缴纳的资本利得税相当于6.69%的股票回调幅度,而这种回调幅度十分常见。

即便是一只涨幅高达300%的优质股票,卖出时缴纳的资本利得税对应的回调幅度也仅约为10.04%,基本与市场回调(Market Correction)的幅度相当。事实上,市场每年往往会经历一至两次这样的回调。而那些涨幅极高的优质股票,本身已足以经受住偶尔发生的回调,因此持有时间很长且涨幅已经十分可观时,在基本面没有发生什么大的变化的情况,通常也无需卖出。

综上所述,从上表数据来看,资本利得税对投资者而言是非常友好的。税负只是次要因素,关键在于挑选优质股票并实现显著增值。另一方面,对于长期投资者来说,若能持续延税,实现高回报,根本无需卖出。比如,巴菲特持有的可口可乐和美国运通几十年,可以做到几十年不缴纳利得税,长期延税,减少卖出买入损耗。理想情况下,持有这样的股票是最优策略;若无法做到这一点,那么在适当时机果断卖出也是明智之举。

Saturday, February 8, 2025

标普500指数2025年第5周和第6周

2025年第5周的交易日从2025年1月27日(周一)到2025年1月31日(周五)。

2025年第6周的交易日从2025年2月3日(周一)到2025年2月7日(周五)。

我们先来看看标普500指数这两周的每日表现:

Date Open High Low Close Adj Close Volume
Feb 7, 2025 6,083.13 6,101.28 6,019.96 6,025.99 6,025.99 4,766,900,000
Feb 6, 2025 6,072.22 6,084.03 6,046.83 6,083.57 6,083.57 4,847,120,000
Feb 5, 2025 6,020.45 6,062.86 6,007.06 6,061.48 6,061.48 4,756,250,000
Feb 4, 2025 5,998.14 6,042.48 5,909.87 6,037.88 6,037.88 4,410,160,000
Feb 3, 2025 5,969.65 6,022.13 5,923.93 5,994.57 5,994.57 4,797,210,000
Jan 31, 2025 6,096.79 6,120.91 6,030.93 6,040.53 6,040.53 4,843,770,000
Jan 30, 2025 6,050.75 6,086.64 6,027.46 6,071.17 6,071.17 4,634,620,000
Jan 29, 2025 6,057.70 6,062.83 6,012.96 6,039.31 6,039.31 4,115,310,000
Jan 28, 2025 6,026.97 6,074.54 5,994.63 6,067.70 6,067.70 4,473,640,000
Jan 27, 2025 5,969.04 6,017.17 5,962.92 6,012.28 6,012.28 5,198,750,000
Jan 24, 2025 6,121.43 6,128.18 6,088.74 6,101.24 6,101.24 4,214,250,000

在标普 500 指数于第三周再创新高后,市场在周末两天消化了 DeepSeek 横空出世的消息,迎来了 1 月 27 日的 “AI 黑色星期一”。所幸,尽管过去两周市场持续震荡,标普 500 指数依然稳健未破。

首先,DeepSeek 的影响继续深化。第二,这两周也是财报周。除了 META,其他几家科技七巨头在这两大因素下出现了巨大的震荡。芯片股受 DS 的影响最大,虽然小幅反弹了几次,但是仍然十分疲软。

另一个最大的新闻就是关税。这对加拿大股市的影响巨大。