加拿大股票2025年2月28日

今天是 2025 年 2 月 27 日周四，明天是 2 月 28 日周五，是二月份的最后一天，也是本周和本月股市的最后一个交易日。

今天美国宣布 3 月 4 日对加拿大和墨西哥实施关税，加拿大将进行对等报复。

今天标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数均跌破了 2024 年 11 月 6 日川普当选这天以来的点数。

股市目前在振荡，可能会持续下跌。如果是这样，那么过去三个多月的峰值就是历史高点。如果持续振荡，或者又恢复上涨，很多人也认为今年股市会发生一次大跌，甚至会出现黑天鹅。

关税对加拿大的经济有打击。历史告诉我们，经济不好，并不一定代表股市不好，它们之间并不一定正相关，但是关税肯定会打击不少上市公司。

现在十分有必要来将加拿大股市扫一遍。在这里，我把我看到的想到的一些东西写下来，想到什么写什么，不讲究什么章法，之后想到什么还会随时补充。

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我将 2019 年 6 月 30 日设为起点，将 2025 年 2 月 28 日为终点，看看多伦多证交所综合指数在此期间是什么情况。先看长期周线走势图：

几个关键点：

• 2020 年 2 月份疫情爆发，股市在一个月内快速下跌。疫情前的记录是 2020 年 2 月 20 日的 17,970.50 点。
• 2020 年 3 月 23 日疫情谷底 11,172.70 点。跌幅 37.83%。
• 2022 年 3 月 31 日疫情泡沫峰值 22,181.80 点。两年几乎 100% 的涨幅。
• 然后经历一年半的振荡期，此期间，最低点是 17,873.20，发生在 2022 年 10 月 13 日。最高跌幅 19.42%，没有超过 20%，也就是市场定义的熊市分界线。
• 然后从 2022 年 10 月开始上涨，一直涨到了 2025 年 1 月 30 日的最高 25,875.60 点。此次涨幅 44.77%。

对大盘指数，跌幅超过 10% 就是进入的机会，跌幅在 20% 上下，可以大资金进入。

将其与 RY、标普 500 指数进行涨幅对比，看下图：

走势曲线形状类似，但是强弱有分明。RY 比多伦多证交所综合指数稍微强一些，但是标普 500 指数的涨幅几乎是多伦多证交所综合指数的两倍。

在五年半的时间内，多伦多股市给了我们两次绝佳的机会。第一次发生在短短的一个月时间内，发生得太快，没有抓住情有可原。第二次给了我们一年多的时间，出现了多次相比前期峰值跌幅在 15% 的点位，这些都是绝佳的加仓机会。

出现黑天鹅就会再次出现 2020 年那样的机会，但是大概率在不久的将来，会再次出现 2022 到 2023 年那样的振荡。

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多伦多证券交易所（The Toronto Stock Exchange，简称 TSX）是一家位于加拿大安大略省多伦多的证券交易所。按市值计算，它是全球第十大交易所、北美第三大交易所。TSX 总部位于多伦多金融区的安永大厦（EY Tower），是 TMX 集团的全资子公司，从事成熟公司的股票交易。

截至 2024 年 1 月，多伦多证券交易所拥有 1,811 家上市发行人（包括 ETF 和其他结构性金融产品），总市值达 4.16 万亿加元。 截至 2023 年 3 月，上市发行人数量为 1,798 家，总市值为 4 万亿加元。

TSX 创业交易所（The TSX Venture Exchange，简称 TSXV）是加拿大的一个证券交易所，总部位于阿尔伯塔省的卡尔加里，并在多伦多、温哥华和蒙特利尔设有办事处。该交易所所有交易均通过电子方式进行，因此并没有实体的 “交易大厅”。它曾经被称为加拿大创业交易所（CDNX），但在 2001 年由 TSX 集团（现称 TMX 集团）收购后更名为 TSX 创业交易所。

截至 2010 年 11 月，TSX 创业交易所共有 2,364 家上市公司，总市值达到 60,811,203,235 美元（约 608.11 亿美元）。

截至 2024 年 1 月，在 TSX 和 TSXV 上市的公司总市值达到 4.23 万亿加元。

对应中国大陆的股市称谓，TSX 就是主板市场，TSXV 就是创业板市场。

我们在这里只讨论 TSX，不讨论 TSXV。

纳入多伦多证交所综合指数资格，一家公司的股票必须满足以下条件：

• 市值要求：每只证券在指数中的最低权重须达到 0.05%。此外，该证券在过去三个月以及交易所审查前月末最后三个交易日内的加权平均价格不得低于 1 加元。
• 流动性要求：证券的成交金额和交易笔数必须分别超过所有符合条件证券总成交量的 0.025%。为避免单一公司交易量过于集中，其在成交金额、交易量及交易笔数上均设有 15% 的上限。
• 注册地要求：股票必须在多伦多证券交易所上市，并依照加拿大法律注册成立。

多伦多证交所综合指数的成分股在 230 上下。总市值大约占 TSX 的 70%。

根据 TMX 官方提供的信息，目前，TSX 综合指数有 220 只股票 / 公司。从这 220 只挑选了 60 只出来单独组成了一个指数，叫做 TSX 60 指数，这 60 加公司的市值占了 TSX 综合指数总市值的 80%。所以投资 TSX 综合指数与投资 TSX 60 指数的长期回报往往差别不是很大。

这些公司分为以下几个板块：

英文	中文	公司数量	走势图链接
Consumer Discretionary	非必需消费品	11	点击查看
Consumer Staples	必需消费品	10	点击查看
Energy	能源	31	点击查看
Financial	金融	24	点击查看
Health Care	医疗保健	4	点击查看
Industrials	工业	28	点击查看
Information Technology	信息科技	20	点击查看
Materials	材料	49	点击查看
Real Estate	房地产	20	点击查看
Communication Services	通信服务	5	点击查看
Utilities	公用事业	15	点击查看
REIT	房地产投资信托基金	16	点击查看

说明一下：上面的数据来自 TMX 的网站，各板块公司数量的总和与 TSX 综合指数的数量有少量出入，出入主要在能源板块，可能这个板块的数据没有及时更新。

根据标普网站的数据，成分股现在的确是 220 家。板块分布的概貌十分重要，点击 这里 查看。在这里也提供一个截图，以便直观了解：

金融板块长期以来一直是一个大头，且十分稳定。以前有人将多伦多股市称为哑铃形状，金融板块是哑铃的一端。能源和材料加起来是另外一端。明显，能源和材料现在弱了不少。

iShares 加拿大公司为上面的一些板块提供的相应的 ETF，一些太小的板块就没有必要开设了。这些板块 ETF 分别是：

• XFN - iShares S&P/TSX Capped Financials Index ETF
• XEG - iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF
• XMA - iShares S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index ETF
• XST - iShares S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index ETF
• XUT - iShares S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index ETF
• XIT - iShares S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index ETF
  

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机会来了，如何投资大盘指数，对广大小白散户来说，当然是投资大盘指数 ETF。短期波段，可以投资博能源和材料这两个振荡大的板块。长期投资，信息科技值得拥有。

加拿大发行 ETF 的公司排名可以参考 这个 链接。按照管理资产排名，iShares Canada、BMO 和 Vanguard Canada 遥遥领先其它公司。按照发行数量排名，BMO、iShares Canada、Global X、CI 和
Invesco 都发行了超过 100 种 ETF。

Global X 是以前的 Horizon ETFs 改名而来。其为了给公司客户避税提供了 Tri ETF，被加拿大税务局盯上。目前找不到这些 ETF 了。但是很多人都因为这个噱头投资它们的产品。

几乎各种资产类型的 ETF 都可以在 iShares Canada 或者 BMO 上找到。而 Vanguard Canada 少而精。

其它一些公司提供了一些独特的 ETF。比如非 CAD-hedged 的纳指 100 ETF，就我所知只有 Invesco 的 QQC。TD 银行提供了一些十分独特的 ETF，表现优异，但是主要是它的银行客户购买。

下面列出这些指数 ETF 代码：

VCE，Vanguard FTSE Canada Index ETF，是 FTSE 出的指数，只有 52 只股票，类似 S&P 出的 TSX 60，MER 0.06%，资产 8B。

VCN，Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF，只有 164 只股票，类似 S&P 出的 TSX 综合指数，MER 0.05%，资产 2B。

VCN 的资产几乎是 VCE 的 4 倍，很明显买 VCN，而不是买 VCE。而且 VCN 的长期表现比 VCE 好。而且 Vanguard 的资产增长是最快的。

查看 Vanguard Canada 的 ETF，点击 这里。

XIU，iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF，MER 是 0.18%，资产是 16.275B。

XIC iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF 的 MER 是 0.06%，资产是 15.276B。

尽管 XIU 的 MER 比 XIC 高，XIU 的长期表现比 XIC 好。

查看 iShares Canada 的 ETF，点击 这里。

五年表现，这四只里 VCN 的表现最好。这就是为什么说 FTSE 的指数有一定的优势。

BMO 的 ZCN BMO S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF，MER 是 0.05%，资产是 10B。这个与 XIC 没什么区别。

BMO 的 ZIU BMO S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF 资产量很少，几乎没人买。

查看 BMO 的 ETF，点击 这里。

至此，我们基本分析完了多伦多股市的大盘。根据多年的周线，这三个多月大盘在高位振荡。接下来出现下行趋势的可能大于上行趋势。未来出现一个大跌的可能性增大。因此，我们需要为这张情况做准备。一个十分稳定的方法就是在大跌之后通过买入大盘指数 ETF 来投资大盘。

还有一个方法就是买入某些遭受严重打击的板块龙头股。这个更需要经验。下面就对一些板块捋一遍。

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先来看看银行。正好这几天加拿大银行发布季报。

我们来看看过去几年银行股票的几个大的转折点。

2020 年 2 月中期，疫情爆发到北美，股市大跌一个月，2020 年 3 月，股市突然反转，因为经济刺激政策，一直涨到 2022 年 1 月份。这是有名的疫情泡沫。接着泡沫缓慢破裂，一直跌到 2023 年 10 月份。再次反转，一直涨到 2024 年 12 月份。现在又开始反转。这个时候十分值得我们关注。

看图比较清楚。先看 RY 的图形。它代表了加拿大几家大银行的股票典型走势（典型，不代表一样，下面会分析）。

几个转折点的股价：

• 2020 年 2 月份（疫情爆发前） - 110
• 2020 年 3 月份（疫情爆发） - 78
• 2022 年 1 月份（经济刺激，疫情泡沫） - 148
• 2023 年 10 月份（泡沫破） - 108
• 2024 年 12 月份（通胀被控制） - 180

可以得出两个结论：

• 可以看出每次谷底都是买进的好机会。
• 仅仅以五年为期，长远来看，买得早比抓谷底更划算。

虽然所有银行的走势类似，但是走势强弱有差别。

另外，TD 因为丑闻，它的图片有一些特别。需要单独拿出来。看图：

TD 在 2022 年 2 月初到达疫情泡沫的最高点就一蹶不振，一直到最近换了 CEO，别的银行都在跌，它却涨了两个月。

这几年，CM 表现类似 RY，也不错，市值快追上了 BNS。看图：

它的几个转折点股价如下：

• 疫情爆发前最高 - 57.5
• 疫情爆发谷底 - 35
• 疫情泡沫高峰 - 82.5
• 疫情泡沫之后的谷底 - 47.5
• 2024 年 12 月份 - 95

长期来说，走势图形类似，尽管最终也达到了与 RY 差不多的涨幅，但是股价的稳定性比 RY 差多了。

NA 也与 RY、CM 类似。但是六大银行里最小的一家银行，有一些不一样的地方。疫情泡沫对它的影响不是很大，基本是横向盘整，虽然 2023 年 10 月份也有一个谷底。这一次它的反转从 2024 年 11 月份就开始了。看图如下：

我们看到，RY、CM、NA 每次反涨之后都会突破以前的高峰。BMO 不是如此。2023 年 10 月的谷底之后，它并没有很强反转。自 2024 年 8 月底，BMO 却与其它银行逆行反涨，一直涨到现在，而别的银行已经跌了两个多月了。BMO 虽然远远超越了 BNS，称为加拿大第三大以后，现在的股价仍然还没超过疫情泡沫时的峰值。我们看图：

最后就是 BNS，它是过去十多年加拿大表现最差的银行。它本来是加拿大基本接近第二的第三大银行，现在远远落后第三的 BMO 成为第四大银行。CM 都快超过它了。去年底的峰值还没超过疫情泡沫时的峰值就开始反转了。我们看图：

然后我们将他们放在一张图上对比一下：

不计算股息，仅从股价上来看，NA 第一梯队。CM 和 RY 第二梯队。BMO 第三梯队。BNS 第四梯队。TD 第五梯队。

第二，从这个图形也看出，五到六年间，经济出现各种问题，还有通货膨胀，投资银行股票，股息都基本与定期存款利率接近，税务上更有优势，还有不错的增值。

最优质最稳定的银行当然是 RY。NA 最小的银行，发展潜力巨大。TD 在换 CEO 之前的最低点，是最理想的投资机会，现在也不迟，是新 CEO 纠正过去一些年错误的时候，潜力巨大。为什么说潜力巨大？BNS 都换了两次 CEO 了，都起不来，换 CEO 不一定就能更新换代。不过，大家普遍看高 TD，毕竟以前一直也是优质银行。

BMO 近期逆涨应该不能持续。TD 的逆涨倒可能会持续一段时间，完全看新 CEO 的表现了，即使新 CEO 的表现一般，股价也得把以前落后的补上来一些，它与历史峰值还差老远了。

这次的下行不知道要进行多久。相比很多其它板块，银行板块的下行还很小，需要观察一段时间。

几大银行属于TSX里的金融板块，这个板块还有人寿保险公司，比如MFC和SLF，车险、财险等的IFC。还有基金和财富管理公司，比如CIX、IGM。资产管理公司，比如BAM、BN等。多伦多股市的母公司TMX也在其列，代码是X，长期以来十分稳定，回报十分高。IFC这些年疯狂扩张，股价表现很好。最近，不少美国政客买入BN。

在金融板块，如果长期持有某只股票，尽量不要碰市值太小的公司。TSX板块只有24只股票，有12家公司的市值低于20B，这12只里面只有TMX是值得长期投资的。第二，投资保险公司要慎重选择。投资整个板块，比如买入XFN这只ETF，大多数时候并不是最佳选择，不如选择一到两家优质银行，和其它个别优质公司。

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多伦多股市上市值第二大的公司是 Shopify。它一度超过 RY 成为加拿大第一大市值的公司。加拿大股市上有一个魔咒，任何超过银行成为第一大市值的公司以后就会很惨，比如以前的北电。还有一个规律，做得很好的科技公司，最终会被美国打败。比如黑莓。我对 Shopify 的业务模式也不是很懂。它的股价振荡很大，经常一天的涨跌都是好几个百分点，难以掌控。不过，我们开始可以看看它的图。

• 疫情泡沫高峰股价 169
• 疫情泡沫破裂后股价 24
• 现在股价 110

疫情泡沫涨了 5 倍；破裂之后的谷底 2023 年 10 月到现在涨得不错，又翻了五倍。这些股票有没有发财的机会？ 肯定有啊。什么时候进入呢？

• 千万不要在全民疯狂的时候的高点进入，可能永远翻不了身。
• 在长期振荡开始反突破上涨后进入。
• 在一个大斜坡的底部开始发转后进入。

以上规律都适合美国的科技股。

过去一些年，类似 SHOP 这样的股票很多。疫情泡沫套死了一批人。最近川普股疯大概率又要套一批人。还有一类就是群和社媒上的强势（热门）股票，类似前面泡沫和股疯，很多人一跟风就被套死。群和社媒不就是喜欢吸引眼球吗？不讨论势头股票，难道还讨论那些无聊的慢牛？

加拿大股市上市值与 TD 基本相当的一家软件公司是 CSU，位于多伦多。它是过去十几年，或者说过去二十年最牛的一家公司。这家公司就通过不断收购世界各地的中小软件公司，股价一直稳定上涨。我十几年前碰过它，后来就没碰它了。因为我实在看不懂它。它这种通过不断收购的发展模式家我喜欢的。现在的 Bausch Health，丑闻之前叫 Valeant Pharmaceuticals，就这样做过，现在股价 11 元，以前最高股价 300 多元，曾经超越 RY 成为加拿大第一大市值公司。

CSU 的股价图形就不给出来了，过去十几年就是涨，稳定地涨，一直涨。

最近加拿大还有一家十分火的科技公司，Celestica Inc.，位于多伦多，过去两年涨了 10 倍以上。算是 AI 风头股，做云数据中心的。它的市值进入了加拿大前 60 了。看它这三年的股价图形：

多伦多股市综合指数 IT 板块的公司有（市值从高到低）有：SHOP、CSU、GIB.A、CLS、DSG、OTEX、KXS、BB、LSPD、DCBO、ENGH、CTS、DND、BITF、TCS、CMG、CVO、STC、SYZ、QTRH

GIB 振荡了很久，最近突然爆发。黑莓 BB 过去两个月突然咸鱼翻身，股票翻倍。OTEX 不断收购也无法改变公司没落命运。LSPD 一度很火，也无法打破传统的市场，取得突围。

正因为 S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index 经常调整，整个板块的表现从来都是不错的。这正如如果从十年或者二十年来看，纳斯达克指数从来都远远好过标普 500 指数的表现一样。

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index ETF 代码是 XIT。我们来看看它的表现：

它的表现远远超过了同期表现最好的银行 NA。所以，在自己的加元投资组合里，应该有一些 XIT。

目前来看，IT 板块并没有收到关税的影响，反转下行的趋势并不明显，但是也有了一些苗头。

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能源板块自2008年经纪危机以来经历了长达十几年的下行，2020年疫情刚爆发的谷底是它十几年的谷底。全球气候变暖、ESG、页岩油、电动车等对这个板块造成了巨大的冲击。无论是世界石油巨头还是加拿大本地石油公司，都遭受了巨大的冲击。疫情爆发的谷底之后，这几年能源板块基本上处于上涨趋势。很多小的石油公司的股价都有五倍甚至十几倍的涨幅。在此期间，CNQ远远超越SU称为加拿大第一大石油公司。不过CNQ也从去年4月10日的最高点56.49跌到2月28日的 39.92。不过，还是众多市场分析师都推荐CNQ。能源板块分以下几个：

1. Integrated Oil & Gas
2. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production
3. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
4. Oil & Gas Drilling
5. Oil & Gas Storage/Transport
6. Other Energy Sources
7. Renewable Energy Producers

第一种综合石油公司同时具有开采到提炼的能力，只有三家：SU、IMO、CVE。IMO大约70%的股份属于美国的ExxonMobil。CVE是Encana的油砂业务拆分出来的。Encana臭名昭著的管理差，不得不改名Ovintiv。CVE和OVV都是长期的烂公司。SU买下Canadian Oil Sand后在过去一些年因为设施故障造成成本控制出现问题不受投资者青睐。现在美国队加拿大能源征收关税，SU自己开采、自己提炼、自己销售（Petro-Canada），最近稍微被人看好。提炼不是被人看好的业务。Petro-Canada这只低增长低利润空间的业务几次想卖最后都没有卖出去。

超过10B的石油公司还有TOU和ARX。其余都是5B左右或者更小的石油公司，除非真的对这个行业有深入了解，否则根本不能碰那些小公司。

比如臭名昭著的BTE，历史股价接近60，2015年以来大部分时间股价5元以下。

比如曾经广受分析师推荐和缺现金流的散户喜欢的VET，因为它的股息很高。大股东通过持有高比例的股份，通过股息把钱拿到手，给市场描述出一幅美好的前景，但是最终会露馅的，只有砍掉股息。即使砍了股息，现在不赚钱，还维持不错的股息，只能骗骗小白。

这个板块大部分的公司都是第二类——石油开采公司。

第五类里有几个大公司，主要是石油管线公司，分别是ENB、TRP、PPL、KEY和TRP分拆出去的SOBO。SOBO是石油管线。TRP保留能源储存和处理。这类公司的股息一般都不低，缺少现金流，这类公司可以买。

其它几类都是提供服务的小公司。

第七类新能源都可能不应该被归纳在能源板块，倒与公用事业更相关。这一类火了一些年，现在都处于低谷。投入大，效益低，没人喜欢。

2024年十分火的一家公司TVK，归在Oil & Gas Equipment & Services，但是它火在HVAC设备，服务各种行业。

加拿大能源板块已经振荡了三年，过去一年十分缓慢地下行。10%的关税对其影响有多大？应该会继续下行。不过能源板块并没有2010到2020那个期间那么脆弱。

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未完待续

 

匹克球（Pickleball）小心得

这段视频对匹克球（Pickleball）的一些基本规则讲解得十分清楚，强烈推荐观看。新手实战一次，有不懂的地方再回来看一遍。

匹克球的球拍英文称为 paddle，而羽毛球和网球的球拍则叫 racquet。尽管在匹克球中误称其为 racquet 也不影响交流，就像羽毛球的球正式名称是 shuttlecock 或 birdie 或 bird，但很多人直接称之为 ball，依然能被理解。

匹克球的兴起，与羽毛球的室内场地密切相关。羽毛球的双打场地最大，长 44 英尺，宽 20 英尺，因此匹克球沿用了相同的尺寸（44' x 20'）。不过，匹克球的单打和双打使用相同的场地大小，而羽毛球的双打场地比单打场地略宽。

匹克球的球分室内球和室外球。室外球 40 孔，孔小。室内球 26 孔左右，孔大。无论是 paddle 还是 ball，最好买 USAPA（美国匹克球协会）获批过的，产品列表请点击这里去查询。

在上述视频中，详细介绍了发球方的规则。那么接发球方是否有固定规则呢？答案是否定的，规则并未强制要求接发球员站在底线外。然而，在实际比赛中，接发球员通常站在底线外或底线附近，主要是为了遵守双弹跳规则（Two-Bounce Rule）并更好地应对深发球。如视频所述，接发球员的队友 应站在场地中间，尽快前移至非截击区（厨房区），占据有利位置，为进攻做准备。而发球队伍的非发球球员则应尽量站在靠近底线的位置，以应对球在己方场地的第一次弹跳（双弹跳规则）。从选手的发球站位往往能看出他们是否熟悉匹克球的基本战术。

匹克球和羽毛球的发球方式相似，均为对角发球，无论是否触网，球都必须落入对角的发球区。不过，匹克球的发球区始终固定，而羽毛球的发球区规则有所不同——单打时发球区深且窄，双打时发球区浅但更宽。

对于匹克球和羽毛球的发球规则：如果发球落在对角发球区的边线（包括两侧边线和后端线），则发球有效。只要球的任何部分触及界线，均视为界内。但若球落在靠近球网的非截击区线（匹克球）或短发球线（羽毛球），则视为界外。知道这个规则的业余选手不多，索性以重新发球来应对。

匹克球的得分规则：只有发球方才能得分。而羽毛球则采用每球得分制（Rally Scoring），即无论谁赢得该回合，均可得分。

在匹克球双打中，每当一方获得发球权，总是从右侧发球区（Right Box）开始发球。而在匹克球单打和羽毛球中，发球方的站位则取决于得分的奇偶性（奇数左侧，偶数右侧）。匹克球双打中，每位发球员都拥有一次发球权。

尽管上述视频已经详细讲解了匹克球双打的得分规则，但从评论来看，许多观众仍然觉得这个规太复杂。正如前文所述，当发球权转移给另一支队伍时，新队伍的第一名发球员必须从右侧发球区（Right Box）开始发球。每次得分后，发球员与队友交换位置，使发球员轮流从左右发球区发球。如果发球失误：

• 若第一名发球员失误，发球权转给队友（第二名发球员）。
• 若第二名发球员失误，发球权转移至对方队伍，对方从右侧发球区重新开始发球。

如视频所述，计分从 0-0-2 开始。即，开局时的首发球方仅有一次发球权，以抵消先发的优势。

知道了这样的发球和站位，理解匹克球双打的得分和计分就十分容易了。

正因匹克球的计分方式不同，其比赛总分通常为 11 分制，而羽毛球则采用 21 分制。

匹克球的核心技术其实是“丁克”（Dink）。在微信视频的高级匹克球比赛中，可以看到长时间的 Dinking Rally。那么，什么是“丁克”？它是一种短球战术，通常是在非截击区（厨房区） 附近打出软击球，目的是减缓比赛节奏、迫使对手犯错，并创造进攻机会。在众多丁克战术中，对角丁克（Cross-court Dink） 是最常见的，因为它能让球路更长，增加对手回球的难度。

此外，匹克球的第三拍（Third Shot）至关重要。理想情况下，这一球应该落入对方的厨房区，然后迅速上网，占据有利位置。

理解匹克球的规则并不难，看看几个视频、打上几场实战，不懂就请教老手，很快就能掌握。但真正的挑战在于提升球技。业余选手主要依靠实战积累经验，而专业选手则需要有针对性的训练，精进技术和战术。

在健身房、社区中心等公共场地打球时，首先要仔细阅读场地规则，确保遵守规定。其次，这类场地的搭档通常是随机匹配的，水平参差不齐，大家彼此不熟悉，因此需要注意基本礼仪和安全：

• 如果其他场地的球滚进了本场地，应暂停比赛，把球安全地传回去，避免踩到球导致受伤。
• 如果自己的球误入他人场地，不要贸然冲进去，而是先喊一声提醒对方，让他们把球传回来。
• 对于水平较低的队友或对手，要保持耐心和尊重，友好交流，而不是急躁或轻视。
  

在公共场地打球，除了提高球技，良好的球品和礼仪同样重要，这不仅能让自己打得更开心，也能为整个球场营造更好的氛围。

没有了 Microsoft 365 subscription 怎么办？

Subscription（订阅服务）对公司来说无疑是一门赚钱的好生意，是一种极具吸引力的商业模式，能源源不断地捞进经常性收入。对公司有利，对客户就不利。曾几何时，花一百元——促销的时候只要半价——买一套 Microsoft Office 就能用好多年；而现在，一年订阅费就要百元有余。Adobe 因为订阅难以取消的丑闻，不仅让股票大跌、公司声誉扫地，还引来了联邦贸易委员会的调查。实际上，大部分人也就偶尔用用 Photoshop 而已。在如今图形处理软件泛滥的时代，对于非专业用户来说，Photoshop 的许多普通功能完全可以用其他开源或者免费软件替代。为了套住用户，Adobe 就在订阅取消上耍流氓。

扯远了。进入 Subscription 时代后，我一直用孩子在以前学校的账户来使用 Office，现在 Microsoft 对继续使用旧账户发出了警告：

订阅截止日是 2025 年 3 月 8 日。如今孩子上大学了，继续用他们大学的账户，我就可以看到他们的 OneDrive 内容的权限，他们有点不乐意，我也觉得他们的理由充分。

没有了 subscription，我怎么继续使用 Microsoft Office？上面的警告提供了三个选项。第三个选项是 Use the free apps at Microsoft365.com，意思是免费使用网络版的 Microsoft 365。真的吗？我登录进去，打开 Word，看了一下界面，网络版与下载版基本一样，Word 的 Dictate 功能运行起来十分顺畅，毫无延迟。对我来说，网络版足够使用了，这点让我倒是挺满意的。

注：Microsoft 365 subscription 如以前卖 Office 套装一样，也经常做 50% 的促销。

res-downloader 是一个好工具

GitHub 上的 res-downloader 是一个好工具，能下载微信视频号、微信小程序、抖音、快手、小红书、直播流、m3u8、酷狗、QQ音乐等地方的常见网络资源下载。这些网络资源包括图片、视频、音频等。点击这里去它的 GitHub 页面。

因为 res-downloader，我想起来多年前我用来嗅探视频流链接的一个工具 URL Snooper，它的最新版还停留在 May 5, 2017，看来已经停止开发很久了。也是，有各种各样的浏览器插件可以完成这些任务，使用 URL Snooper 已经没有必要了。世界在变化，内需变化不大，外在形式和实现的方式发生了变化而已。

巴菲特 2024 年度信

2025 年 2 月 22 日（周六），沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）发布了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.） 2024 财年的股东信。过去十余年，我每年都会认真阅读他的年度信件，今年也不例外。

在这封信中，巴菲特与股东分享了公司的成功与失误。他直言自己在投资和人才聘用上曾犯下错误，并强调企业在面对问题时必须及时纠正。他还批评了一些公司不敢承认错误的企业文化。但是，他坚信这样的表扬和批评的管理理念——“Praise by name,criticize by category”（表扬要点名道姓，批评则要笼统）。正因如此，他在信中特别表扬了 Pete Liegl，并将此作为对他的纪念。Pete 曾凭借简单的握手交易，将 Forest River 休闲房车公司卖给伯克希尔，并成功将其发展为市值数十亿美元的企业。此外，他还特别提及 Todd Combs 出任 GEICO CEO 几年以来的卓越贡献，推动了公司经营的显著改善。

巴菲特已年届九旬，他在信中透露，格雷格·阿贝尔将接任伯克希尔的 CEO，确保公司的稳定传承。

尽管伯克希尔旗下 53% 的子公司业绩有所下滑，但受益于国债收益率上升及保险业务（特别是 GEICO）的强劲表现，公司 2024 年营业利润达到 474 亿美元。巴菲特重申，公司始终注重长期投资，不会被短期股价波动左右。

他坦言，60 年前买入伯克希尔本是个错误，因当时公司的纺织业务已注定失败——这一点他过去提到过很多次。然而，伯克希尔最终逆势成长，成为今日的商业巨擘。在这 60 年间，公司仅派发过一次股息，而是将利润持续再投资，既全资持有众多企业，也长期持有苹果、可口可乐等大型公司股票，始终坚信美国企业和资本主义的长期价值——这一点也几乎年年老调重弹。

巴菲特认为，美国经济的繁荣基于储蓄、明智的资本配置以及坚韧不拔的精神。

截至目前，伯克希尔持有高达 3342 亿美元的现金储备，并在 2024 年缴纳 268 亿美元企业税，占全美企业税收的 5%。巴菲特感谢政府为经济稳定所做的努力，并表示希望未来伯克希尔能缴纳更多税款，前提是这些资金能被合理、高效地使用。

财产保险业务的特性决定了保费收入通常在前，而真正的成本可能几十年后才显现，因此风险难以预测。伯克希尔长期利用这笔 “浮存金” 进行投资，并保持严格的风控策略。随着汽车保有量增长及极端气候频发，保险需求持续上升，公司在这一领域的竞争优势愈加稳固。

此外，伯克希尔将进一步加码对五家日本商贸公司的投资，目前投资增值接近 100 亿美元，增值幅度70%，采取日元平衡策略（即从日本借款投资日本公司）是成功的，预计 2025 年将获得约 8.12 亿美元股息收入，而利息成本约 1.35 亿美元。

My Fundamental Way of Understanding Reality

We Actually Live in a Four Dimensional Space

Today I want to share with you a fundamental way of understanding the world: seeing time as the 4th dimension of our reality. When you read today's title, “We actually live in a four dimensional space,” you might think I'm just trying to grab attention. After all, we clearly live in a three-dimensional world. Some sci-fi fans might imagine that there's an unseen dimension allowing aliens to appear instantly in our world from the 4th dimension, but that's just baseless speculation. However, if we change our perspective and consider time as a dimensional space, then our world is actually four dimensional, also known as space-time. This is a scientific concept first proposed by Albert Einstein in physics. Space-time has an entire theoretical framework, including how to calculate distances while factoring in time. But that's not my main focus today; what I really want to talk about is the impact of time.

My inspiration comes from a message left by a reader named Lemon. She wrote six years ago: "A longtime friend of mine asked to borrow money. She said she really needed it and, since we had a great relationship, I didn't think twice. I sent her the money without even asking for an IOU. But later, her husband came to me and asked, 'How much money did you borrow from us?' I was completely stunned—his wife was the one who borrowed money from me. It turned out she had been investing in stocks with millions involved, and I couldn't understand why she would do something like that. Was this really the same friend I had known for years? Two years ago, she paid me back completely, even though I never asked for it, showing that she still valued our friendship. But in the end, I lost a good friend. I wanted to reconnect with her, but she always seemed distant, which in a way was good for me. There was an irreversible crack in our relationship, something that could never be undone, and I had no choice but to move on. So, should we avoid lending money to close friends to prevent losing them? What do you think, Mr. Wu?"

How time transforms space

Before answering her question, let me share two stories about my friends.

First story: Chasing a dream from the past.

My friend Xiao Mei wasn't a top student in high school and didn't get into a prestigious university; however, she worked hard and eventually became successful in her career. Yet she always had a deep admiration for elite schools. Some prestigious universities, particularly those that are business minded, take advantage of people like her—Stanford University being one of them. Stanford offers two programs tailored for this kind of audience: one is a special short term MBA program lasting only two months but costing as much as a full year MBA program; the other is the visiting scholar program. While most visiting scholars at Stanford are there for academic research, a small number gain entry by making significant financial donations. A university official once told me about this, explaining that donating the equivalent of free postdoctoral research grants could secure someone a visiting scholar position complete with an office desk and an official ID. My friend was eager to attend Stanford's Business School or become a visiting scholar. I asked her, "At this stage in your life, with your career already established, why chase this status?" She insisted that it wasn't just about prestige; it was about fulfilling a long lost dream. In the end, she chose to be a visiting scholar. At first, she proudly posted photos of her ID and office on social media, but over time even she began to resent this behavior. While she continued to tell people she had been a visiting scholar at Stanford, privately she admitted that the experience didn't match the intellectual romance she had envisioned. She couldn't quite explain why. I told her, "The 40-year-old you and the 20-year-old you are two completely different people. The same campus experienced 20 years apart is an entirely different place. What you didn't get at 20 won't feel the same at 40, even if you were treated as a 20-year-old again."

Second story: A relationship that couldn't be recreated.

My friend Xiao Chang had a college girlfriend who was considered the campus beauty. They had a good relationship, but she was the dominant one in the dynamic. After graduation, as they started working, they spent less time together; with many suitors at her workplace, their relationship naturally faded. Xiao Chang, understanding the situation, let go without drama and focused on his career. He later went abroad for his PhD. Ten years later, after earning his doctorate, Xiao Chang landed a job at a multinational company and was sent back to China to expand their business; he became the second highest executive in the country. Meanwhile, his ex-girlfriend had married and divorced, ending up single again. When she heard about Xiao Chang's success, she reached out to see if he could help her find a job. Xiao Chang happily agreed—not just out of kindness, but because he still had feelings for her. To avoid workplace conflicts, he helped her secure a job at another company. They got back together, and everything seemed perfect at first, but within a year they broke up. Friends speculated that now being wealthy and powerful, Xiao Chang must have abandoned her for someone else. At first he tried to explain, but eventually he stopped bothering. In private, however, he confided in me, "She's not the same person I once knew." I told him, "That's true, but you're not the same person either. At 20 you loved the 20-year-old version of her, but if today were your first time meeting her at 30, you probably wouldn't fall for her. You're clinging to a past that no longer exists."

The power of time

Over a century ago, Einstein pondered a philosophical question: What are the fundamental conditions for existence? His conclusion was space and time. If either ceases to exist, the world itself would lose meaning—essentially, it would not exist. Since space and time are inseparable, changes in time naturally alter space. Imagine a ruler fixed at one end while the other end rotates; even though its length remains unchanged, its position shifts over time. Human relationships work the same way. Some things once missed can never be recovered. If you were once a struggling student with barely enough money for tuition and a thief stole your last bit of cash, preventing you from completing your studies, no amount of money later in life could fix that. In the first story, my friend missed the experience of studying alongside talented young peers at ages 18 to 22; no degree could ever bring back that youthful camaraderie. When the time for something has passed, it's best to let go. In the second story, people change. Two friends drift apart and stop communicating for a long time; even if they reconnect, they may find themselves strangers, as time has transformed them. Einstein's space-time equation shows that time influences space more than space influences time. If we apply this to society, we see that in a rapidly changing world, time's effects are even stronger, and we live in an era of rapid change.

Seizing the present to avoid regret

Understanding this reality means keeping three things in mind.

First, do things at the right time: study when you're in school, love when it's time to love, and settle down when the time is right. Delaying these milestones can make them feel unnatural later.

Second, let go of nostalgic memories: if past experiences conflict with your present, prioritize the present—you are no longer who you used to be.

Third, don't overthink the future; the future rarely turns out exactly as imagined as long as you avoid making decisions that will harm your future. Don't stress over uncertainties, and most importantly, never forget that time is the 4th dimension of our world.

That is my fundamental way of understanding reality.

Why Most People Can't Achieve Financial Freedom

Yesterday, we discussed how businesses generate free cash flow, which primarily depends on two factors: high profit margins in their core business and the ability to generate profits without continuous reinvestment. To achieve this, a company needs to do two things well: choose the right industry and build a strong competitive advantage. The same logic applies to individuals. Before we dive into how people can achieve financial freedom, let's examine three real-life examples that highlight why most people struggle to attain it—three types of people who can't achieve financial freedom.

Case 1: The Startup Dreamer

This first case is a common scenario among many professionals. Let's imagine a character—a technical expert or a skilled salesperson—who sees people around him making a fortune when their companies go public. So, he joins a promising startup and receives a generous amount of stock options. As the company raises multiple rounds of funding, its valuation soars and his paper wealth increases. However, statistics show that only 2–3% of venture-backed startups go public or get acquired at a high price, and less than 5% of those public companies experience significant stock price growth. More often than not, the startup quietly shuts down after a few funding rounds or lingers in a stagnant state, and as a result, his stock options become worthless. Even in cases where a startup gets acquired by a larger company, early employees typically receive limited financial returns—perhaps the equivalent of one or two years’ salary, considering that he likely accepted a pay cut to join the startup. His total earnings may only match what he would have made in a stable corporate job. At this point, he faces two choices: stay with the acquiring company and settle into a corporate career (which leads to our second case) or jump into another startup and try his luck again. In places like Silicon Valley, many opt for the latter, repeating the cycle of rising and falling wealth.

Case 2: The High-Earning Corporate Executive

The second case is based on numerous interviews, reports, and personal observations. The protagonist comes from a modest background but excels academically, earning a degree from a top university before landing a job in a major city. After a decade of hard work, he rises to a senior executive position in a large corporation, earning a $1,000,000 salary. He has finally made it—this is the ultimate dream for many ambitious students and young professionals: climbing the corporate ladder to financial success. However, with his new status comes frequent business travel, luxury vacations, and five-star hotels to maintain his professional image. He entertains clients regularly, indulging in lavish dining and networking events. Then one day, he gets laid off or the company shuts down. When he checks his savings, he's shocked to find very little. His largest asset is real estate, which is difficult to sell, and he doesn't want to sell it because that would jeopardize his future lifestyle. His second-largest asset is company stock options, which have lost all value due to the company's downturn. Luxury goods, such as designer clothing and jewelry, are practically worthless in resale. When his mortgage payment comes due, he realizes that his house and car are liabilities, not assets. If his children attend private school, he may struggle to pay tuition. Even if he wants to cut back on spending, it's nearly impossible because many of his expenses were investments in maintaining his income level; if he stops, he risks losing future earning opportunities.

Case 3: The Business Owner Trapped in His Own Success

The third case features a successful business owner who is intelligent, hardworking, and deeply committed to his company, which he built from the ground up. He knows every aspect of his business but struggles to trust his employees, leading to a management style that relies more on personal oversight than structured processes. As his company grows, he gets busier with daily operations and doesn't have the time to study macroeconomic trends. His business is part of a competitive industry—there's always demand—but he can only charge low prices because any price increase would drive customers to competitors. Over time, his company fails to develop brand influence or meaningful innovation. Although he appears to earn substantial daily profits, his company has high operating costs. If he stops working, the income stops while the expenses continue. Since his business success is tied to his personal efforts, he can't easily pass it down to his children or employees. He's like a dancer trapped in red shoes—constantly moving but unable to stop. Although he seems financially stable, he has little true free cash flow. Many business owners fall into this trap, spending heavily on maintaining industry connections and status, and assuming that reinvesting money into their business will always yield higher profits. However, when economic conditions shift, profits can turn into losses and cash flow dries up overnight.

Why Do These People Struggle?

These three cases reflect common misconceptions about financial freedom:

• Confusing paper wealth with real wealth. Money professionals mistake stock options and paper gains for true financial security, but without liquidity, these assets can become worthless.
• Failing to account for the impact of reinvestment on cash flow. High-income earners and business owners often spend heavily to sustain their income, not recognizing how reinvestment eats into their free cash flow.
• Mistaking luck for a reliable income source. People often overestimate the stability of their income, assuming past earnings will continue indefinitely.

The Experience Trap and Survival Strategies

We've all heard the story of the farmer who found a rabbit trapped in a tree stump and assumed he could rely on it as a steady food source. From an outside perspective, it was pure luck, but if he catches another rabbit the next day and again the day after, he might start believing it's guaranteed. As philosopher Francis Bacon warned, "Beware the bondage of your own thoughts." Many people, especially high earners, base their future plans on past experiences that may not hold true for salaried employees. Wages might seem like reliable cash flow, with promotions promising even higher income, but this assumption is based on limited experience. It doesn't account for company failures or economic downturns. In agricultural societies, people knew to expect seven good years followed by seven bad years; in modern economies, recessions occur roughly every eight to ten years. The key to long-term financial success is surviving each downturn and taking advantage of the opportunities that follow. History shows that every so-called golden era of an industry ends with only a few survivors—those who adapt and persist. The same applies to individuals. For example, investment banking professionals face a major financial crisis roughly every 7–8 years. About half of them get wiped out, but those who survive two cycles usually achieve financial freedom.

Key Takeaways

Most people misunderstand personal free cash flow. Common pitfalls include:

• Treating paper wealth as real wealth.
• Failing to account for the impact of reinvestment on cash flow.
• Assuming past luck or income stability will continue indefinitely.

Now, here's a question for you: Have you ever mistaken past income for good fortune as a reliable long-term source of financial security? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Why Is It So Hard for the Poor to Get Rich?

Six Fundamental Problems That Keep People in Poverty

I. Introduction: The Challenge of Building Wealth

Poor people rarely get rich overnight, while middle‐class individuals might fall into poverty suddenly. Sometimes, people spend their whole lives without becoming wealthy, yet second-generation rich individuals can quickly revert to ordinary—or even poorer—statuses in just a few years. I mention this not to discourage rapid wealth accumulation but to emphasize that no matter how much wealth you acquire, the most important thing is to hold onto it. Improving financial literacy is crucial because the most terrifying situation is not having a low starting point but being locked at the bottom. Often, those who remain at the bottom are the ones who lock themselves in.

Many years ago, I debated with some young colleagues at Google on this issue. They attributed widespread poverty to society, but I argued that blaming everything on society is a lazy approach that never solves the problem. I reminded them that even the poorest among us had milk and bread to eat as children, a bathroom in their house, various electrical appliances, and even a car. Their so-called poverty was not about having nothing; it was simply about not being able to afford better food, a separate room for each child, or to upgrade a decade-old car. Twenty years ago in the United States, the poverty line for a family of four was an annual income of less than $20,000—which at that time could buy 2,000 pounds of eggs per month. When I was a child, my family’s annual income could only buy 100 pounds of eggs, and we had to send money to support my grandparents. My American colleagues were surprised by this, and I added that in just over 20 years, my income had surpassed the poverty line many times over—while many American families have remained below it for generations. Today, I want to share with you the six fundamental problems that lead to poverty.

II. Six Fundamental Problems That Lead to Poverty

1. Overextending Generosity

Many people, even before they become wealthy, begin to give away large amounts of money to subsidize their family and friends. Some might argue that generosity is a virtue. However, consider the airline safety instruction: in the event of an oxygen mask emergency, you are told to put on your own mask before helping others. The same principle applies to wealth building. Solve your own financial problems first and avoid becoming a burden on society; only then should you help others. Today, many emphasize filial piety, friendship, and saving face—even before securing their own career and financial independence—by giving large sums to family and friends. Every penny is hard earned, especially for those from poor backgrounds. Diverting your limited wealth reduces the funds available for exponential growth, turning potential exponential gains into mere linear growth—or even stagnation. This pitfall affects not only money but also career development.

2. Rushing into Uninformed Investments

People with limited funds often rush to invest—especially in industries they don’t understand. This issue is common among American college graduates and some middle-class individuals in China. When a person’s savings amount to only four to five times their annual income, the difference between choosing a good or bad investment option may not significantly impact their life. Yet, some become overly obsessed with investments—not just stocks and finance, but also buying second properties. This not only consumes their limited funds but also their time and energy, causing them to lose focus on developing their careers. In short, someone who chases too many investment opportunities may not have time to concentrate on career advancement.

3. Premature Consumption and Consumerism

The mindset of consumerism, particularly premature consumption, is a major enemy of wealth building. For instance, many young people in the US—whether earning under $50,000, around $100,000, or even $200,000—often live paycheck to paycheck. Those earning $200,000 rarely accumulate wealth. About ten years ago, I observed a similar phenomenon among young people in China. Several small business owners with an annual income of over 1,000,000 yuan would spend lavishly on luxury study trips and stays in five-star hotels, even though they could have used that money to study in Paris for an entire year. Such consumption patterns quickly cap their wealth accumulation.

4. Over-Engagement in Ineffective Socializing

Some business owners spend excessive money on luxury hotels and extravagant social events simply because everyone in their business school circle does the same. I told them that people who unthinkingly spend on luxury items to fit into a particular circle are not truly advancing. Over-engagement in ineffective socializing often means neglecting the time and energy needed to hone money-making skills. Inefficient networking and social activities can detract from focusing on career development.

5. Investing Too Much Time in Low-Value Learning

Some individuals invest excessive time in earning irrelevant certifications or degrees that have little value beyond professional qualifications. Many such certifications lack credibility and fail to persuade employers. While some believe that a higher degree will secure a better job, the key is whether you actually learn something useful that can be applied in your work. Additionally, spending too much time on hobbies—like coffee brewing, baking, or flower arranging—without any plan to turn them into a business can divert your focus from your primary goal of wealth creation. While hobbies are valuable, excessive focus on them can be detrimental to building wealth.

6. Casual Entrepreneurship in Unfamiliar Fields

Starting a business in an unfamiliar industry can be much harder than expected. Many restaurants close or change owners quickly because people assume opening a restaurant is easy. One restaurant owner told me that their seasoning inventory alone includes hundreds of varieties and requires frequent restocking. If you do not understand the field, jumping in is likely to lead to losses, wasting both time and money. With current trends in artificial intelligence, many people who have never written a line of AI code are rushing to start AI businesses—much like someone who has sampled a few Cantonese dishes trying to open a Cantonese restaurant. Although there are other issues, such as choosing the wrong romantic partner, these six problems are the most critical.

III. Conclusion: Focus on Fewer Mistakes

In summary, as Warren Buffett says, it is more important to make fewer mistakes than to seize every opportunity. To build wealth, you must:

• Secure and retain your wealth by managing your money wisely.
• Focus on career development and avoid distractions that divert your limited resources.
• Overcome a mindset that prioritizes immediate gratification over long-term wealth building.

Only by addressing these six fundamental problems can individuals break free from the cycle of poverty and achieve lasting financial freedom.

Key Characteristics of Achieving Financial Freedom

Yesterday, we talked about the common misunderstandings people have about personal free cash flow and concluded that if someone can survive two cycles in investment banking—roughly 15 years—and go through two major stock market crashes, they will have achieved financial freedom. Today, we will pick up from that point and discuss the path to personal financial freedom. If you observe the career choices of individuals from wealthy families, you’ll notice many of them choose to join investment banks. Similarly, talented graduates from ordinary backgrounds often see investment banking as their top career choice. In reality, a career in investment banking is no easy feat; it is grueling in the early stages, and the attrition rate is high. So why do so many people still rush to join this industry? The answer is that after struggling for more than a decade, surviving the tough early years and economic crises, the road ahead becomes smooth and stable for the rest of your life.

How Do People in Investment Banks Make Money?

First, let’s take a look at how people in investment banks make money. Investment banks differ from regular banks. Before the 2008 financial crisis, they weren’t even considered banks but rather investment firms managing money for the wealthy and institutions. It was only after the crisis—due to concerns about risky financial operations—that they were reclassified as banks for better regulation. However, their business model did not change; they still don’t accept small individual deposits. Instead, they invest money from wealthy clients and institutions, charging an annual service fee ranging from 0.5% to 2% of the assets under management. It’s easy to imagine that if your team manages $1 billion in assets at a 1% management fee, that would generate $10 million in annual revenue. With relatively low costs—perhaps around $2 to $3 million—the remainder is free cash flow for the team. Although not all teams manage such large sums, even managing $300–$500 million can generate significant income; typically, it takes just 10 to 20 clients to accumulate that much. If you manage well and earn an 8% return for your clients every year after fees, their assets will double every 10 years, and your management fees will grow proportionally. However, in the event of an economic crisis, the assets managed by many investment banks can lose half of their value. The loss is borne by the clients, while fund managers do not lose a penny. Of course, many clients will want to withdraw their funds in such cases, and many fund managers may lose their jobs. Yet the withdrawn funds eventually return to the financial market, giving those who survive a chance to manage double the funds, resulting in double the cash flow. As long as you hang on—whether you are a fund manager or a wealth manager—you’ll earn a fortune, and this cash flow keeps coming in every year. You don’t need to do anything extra; your clients’ wealth just grows as the stock market rises. In other words, whether you’re sleeping or on vacation, cash keeps flowing in. Viewed this way, working in investment banking seems like a great business with guaranteed income and free cash flow that just keeps coming. However, as with any lucrative opportunity, the competition is fierce. Even heirs from wealthy families compete for entry-level positions, and whether you survive depends a lot on luck. Moreover, with computers assisting in trading, the number of new hires in investment banking keeps shrinking, making it harder to get in.

Key Features of Achieving Financial Freedom

We used investment banking as an example to illustrate the characteristics of ways to achieve personal financial freedom.

First, the longer you work, the more cash flow you generate. Wealth managers and investment banks achieve this because assets typically continue to appreciate over time even if you do nothing. As you survive through several market cycles, you’ll end up managing more and more money. Many people face a midlife crisis at age 35, feeling that they have lost their competitive edge in the workforce. However, in the investment field, the older you get, the more valuable you become. This pattern is similar to industries such as healthcare, law, and accounting in the US. For example, healthcare professionals—including general practitioners, dentists, and ophthalmologists—may have few patients when they are new, but after a few years, with a good reputation, their patients become loyal. I have had the same family doctor for 15 years and the same dentist for 15 years, and an optometrist for 20 years. Once these professionals have a steady stream of patients, their cash flow keeps coming in.

Second, you must have a core competitive advantage. In investment banking, whether you can survive financial crises depends on your investment returns and risk control abilities, which are the most important competitive factors. Although this may sound simple, it is extremely difficult in practice. Often, if a fund manager experiences two or three years of good returns, they may feel invincible and start taking riskier moves or altering their strategy, which can lead to failure during a financial crisis. Many people cannot overcome their own greed; the success or failure of an investment often depends on human nature. The technical aspects of investing are not hard to learn, but overcoming personal weaknesses is something that many people never manage to do, and consequently, they are eliminated.

Third, a stable cash flow job is generally independent of the economic cycle. Most professionals in stable fields earn income that is not heavily dependent on economic fluctuations, even though investment banking income does fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, there are both good and bad years, but if you survive, your future earnings can be even higher. At least, we do not see any instance where an entire industry disappears after a financial crisis. Jobs without stable cash flow tend to be more affected by economic cycles. For example, consider how different the tech products we use today are from those of 10 years ago; people who relied on outdated technology must retrain or leave the industry entirely.

Before I conclude, I’d like to share my father’s experience. By today’s standards, he might not be considered absolutely wealthy, but to some extent, he was financially free—as long as he didn’t spend extravagantly, he didn’t need to worry about money. His primary source of income wasn’t a salary but royalties from patent transfers. I remember that every time he transferred a patent, it generated a new stream of income that lasted for many years. As his patent portfolio grew, his royalties increased, and it truly felt like he was making money even while sleeping.

Conclusion

In summary, the key points regarding financial freedom are as follows:

1. Free Cash Flow: Financial freedom is essentially having free cash flow far exceeding your expenses, so you never need to worry about money, and ideally, your wealth keeps growing.
2. Continuous Income: Just having paper wealth or a high income is not enough; you need a continuous flow of cash that does not require additional investment.
3. Competitive Advantage: To achieve personal financial freedom, you must secure a unique competitive advantage so that the work you do becomes more valuable over time, with minimal impact from economic cycles.
4. Overcoming Additional Investment Costs: One often overlooked aspect is that additional investments can erode your income and profits, potentially leaving you with nothing in the end.

These features, exemplified by the investment banking model, illustrate a pathway toward personal financial freedom.

Why Most People Fail to Achieve Financial Freedom

Before discussing how individuals can achieve financial freedom, let’s look at three examples to understand why most people fail to achieve it. Three types of people who cannot achieve financial freedom:

The First Example

The first example summarizes the experiences of many people around me. Let's imagine a fictional protagonist who is a technical expert or a professional in a similar field, such as a skilled salesperson. This person hears stories about others making a fortune through companies' IPOs and getting rich from the stock market, so they join a promising startup, receiving a considerable amount of stock options. As the company raises more funds, its valuation increases and the protagonist's paper wealth grows; however, only 2 to 3% of startups make it to IPO or get acquired at a high price, and of those IPOs, less than 5% turn into high-growth star companies. Most of these companies, after several rounds of funding, either close down quietly or become stagnant, and the protagonist's paper wealth shrinks as the company stock becomes worthless. Sometimes even a better-quality startup may get acquired by a big company, but even as an early employee, the protagonist's gains are limited—usually to just one or two years' worth of salary. Considering the reduced salary and benefits when they first join, the protagonist's overall earnings are often on par with those of other workers in the same industry with similar experience. At this point, the protagonist faces two choices: either stay with the larger company or try their luck with another new startup, and many people in Silicon Valley would choose the latter, leading their wealth to rise and fall again.

The Second Example

The second example comes from a combination of interviews and reports I’ve seen online, along with examples from people I know. The protagonist comes from a modest background but was outstanding academically and worked hard to attend a top university in a big city. After years of effort, they made it to a senior position at a large company with a million-dollar annual salary, enjoying what seems like midlife success. Today, many high school students who are busy studying and young professionals striving in their careers likely see becoming such a person as their ultimate goal. Once in the company's executive ranks, this person's job requires frequent business trips, family vacations, occasional overseas travel, and stays in five-star hotels. They also deal with numerous social events, often toasting and networking, and feel a sense of accomplishment. Then one day, they are suddenly laid off, or the company shuts down. The protagonist realizes they have very little savings; their largest asset is their house, which they cannot sell as it would mean a future of uncertainty. The next significant asset is the stock options given by the company, but due to the company’s downturn, these are worthless. As for luxury jewelry and clothing, these cannot be liquidated either. When the mortgage is due, they realize that the house and car have become burdens, and if their children attend a private school, they may even struggle to pay the tuition. Even if they want to simplify their lives and stop spending on luxury items, they find it impossible, as many of those expenses were seen as investments in their future earnings—stopping such expenditures would mean never being able to earn that level of income again.

The Third Example

Finally, let’s look at the third example. This protagonist is a successful business owner. They are entrepreneurial, love learning, and are more diligent than others. They built their business over many years and now hold great influence within the company. The protagonist understands the ins and outs of the business but does not trust the people around them, so the company is run more by personal management than by structured systems. As the number of employees grows, the protagonist becomes busy with daily operations and lacks the time and energy to study broader market trends; as a result, it’s difficult to keep up with the industry’s evolving direction. Being a part of a larger industry chain, the protagonist’s company has a constant flow of orders and income, but the profits are minimal since the competition is fierce. After many years, the company still lacks brand influence and innovation. The business earns well on active days but sees little to no income on days off, and the operational costs remain. Since the business’s success is largely due to the protagonist’s personal capabilities, they are reluctant to entrust the business to their child or subordinates. The protagonist ends up like a person wearing red ballet shoes—constantly moving but never able to stop. Although money seems plentiful, it's not real freedom, as halting operations means everything disappears.

Problem Analysis

So, what went wrong for the protagonists in these three examples?

The problem with the first protagonist is easy to analyze. They misunderstood the difference between paper wealth and real wealth. Based on an incomplete survey of mine and other investors I know, private equity funds in the US that invested in China over the past decade have been lucky to recoup half of their investment; the return from venture capital in China has been even lower. Even though some investors make money, the percentage is very small. Given that most investors didn't earn profits, it's no surprise that those who rely on stock options from startups cannot turn their paper wealth into real wealth. What's worse, many of these startups attract employees with non-quantifiable promises, such as titles like Director or Vice President, or by dangling grand visions. When the company is doing well, it feels like a feast, but when things turn bad, it all collapses, and the protagonist realizes they've gained nothing.

The second protagonist's situation is more common. Their primary income consists of salary and bonuses. For most high-income earners, a $1 million salary after taxes and social expenses may leave them with only half of that. Many would wonder why I set this protagonist's background as modest, but this is because, for them, a $1 million salary seems like an amount they could never spend. However, maintaining their high-status lifestyle in a first-tier city—buying a good car, paying a mortgage, dressing well, and ensuring their family keeps up appearances—means there's little to no savings. It's like a company reinvesting its profits back into production.

The third protagonist shares a common issue with many others. From the outside, they seem successful, but their biggest problem is not understanding the difference between profit and free cash flow. As a business owner, they are constantly facing additional investment needs. Even if their financial statements show healthy profits, they spend a lot maintaining relationships with business and political contacts and managing their status. If those expenses stop, the business suffers immediately. So, how much profit can be converted into free cash flow? They may not even know. Ten years ago, I met some friends who were making hundreds of millions in profits annually—some even with net worths in the billions; however, today, when I talk to them, they can't even come up with a few million in working capital, and some have even been blacklisted. Their common mistake was thinking that continuously reinvesting in their businesses would always bring greater profits without focusing on free cash flow. A slight economic downturn turned their profits into losses and disrupted their cash flow. This is the same mistake the second protagonist made when enjoying higher earnings.

Experience Traps in Survival Laws

We've all heard the story of the farmer waiting for a rabbit. From God's perspective, the farmer's luck in finding the rabbit is random and should not be relied on for a stable income. If the farmer experiences this a second or third time, they might mistakenly think that this is sustainable cash flow. Bacon, the master of empiricism, warned us to be wary of being trapped by the ropes of our own thoughts. This means that people—especially those with decent incomes—often plan for their futures based on limited experiences, which may not hold in the long run. For salaried workers, salary is essentially free cash flow, and as they rise through the ranks, they earn more with society providing better opportunities. This is simply an assumption based on past limited experience and may not be reliable. In fact, when the companies that salaried workers depend on face difficulties, they too will be affected. In agricultural societies, it was common knowledge that after seven years of good harvest, there would be seven years of drought. This experience proved reliable, and in industrial societies, economic recessions typically occur every 8 to 10 years. Any successful business or individual must survive each crisis and take advantage of the opportunities left by others. One doesn't treat accidental good fortune as sustainable income. In history, even the most prosperous industries eventually see most companies disappear, leaving only a few to become industry leaders. People are no different. For example, in investment banking, half of the professionals are typically eliminated every 7 to 8 years due to major market crashes, but the survivors gain access to more resources. Surviving two cycles is often enough to achieve financial freedom, which I will talk about more tomorrow.

Summary

Most people misunderstand personal free cash flow in several ways: they confuse paper assets with real wealth, overlook the impact of additional investments on cash flow, and treat occasional luck as a predictable future outcome. Here's a final question for you: Have you ever mistaken past earnings or luck as a reliable long-term source of income for the future? Feel free to share your thoughts with me.

T4 Box 22 Income Tax Deducted

会计需要替公司 ABC 向 CRA 提交一份员工 A 在 2024 年的 T4 表。

T4 表中的 Box 14 显示的是 Employment Income，这个数字很直观；而 Box 16 列出了 Employee's CPP Contributions，也比较容易理解。但 Box 22 中显示的 Income Tax Deducted 数字，又是如何计算出来的呢？

公司 ABC 在发放工资时，会从员工 A 的工资中扣除其应缴的 CPP Contributions，同时公司 ABC 也会缴纳同等金额的 CPP Contributions，双方各承担一半。在 EI Exempt 的情况下，Box 18 和 Box 24 均为零，说明员工 A 和公司 ABC 均无需缴纳 EI 相关费用。

在如此简单的工资情形下，Box 22 的数值理应为零，那么为什么会出现一个具体金额呢？

原来，公司 ABC 在 2024 年向 CRA 缴纳 payroll remittance 时多支付了 X 元。会计解释称，这部分多付的金额就被记入了 Box 22，算作员工 A 的所得税预扣款。

也就是说，公司 ABC 多支付的 X 元被当作员工 A 的纳税抵免，这让人难以理解：难道公司 ABC 吃亏了，而员工 A 却因此受益？

ChatGPT 的回答是这样：

如果公司在年度 CPP 缴纳中多支付了，多余的部分通常不会自动退还给员工或计入员工收入，而是需要由公司与 CRA 协调处理。一般有以下几种方式：

1. 未来周期抵扣：多缴的部分可能会在未来工资周期中作为抵扣额进行调整，即在下一次缴纳时抵减应缴的 CPP 供款。
2. 申请退款：公司也可以直接向 CRA 申请退还多缴的款项，具体流程需按照 CRA 的规定提交相关申请和证明文件。

但是，会计的解释是这样的：申请退款需要等待半年甚至更久，且不划算；转为未来的 CPP 供款，还需要与 CRA 打交道。由于金额较小，便直接将其算作员工 A 的所得税预扣款，最终在 A 报个人所得税时，可减少应缴税额。既然员工 A 是公司 ABC 的所有者，X 元在下个财年的公司报表上直接作为员工 A 从公司的提取款处理。这样处理既简单省事，又无需额外与 CRA 交涉。

会计的特殊处理方法简单粗暴，但是把账做平了，任务也完成了。

Popeyes Canada 的一些优惠

为什么快餐连锁店的饮料（beverages）、配菜（sides）、饼干（biscuits）等小食价格虚高？首先，你单买这些，说明你急需买，图了它的便利，店家就赚取了超高利润。便利店也是如此。第二，虚高的小食价格便于与主打菜品搭配成套餐，从而降低套餐价格，让客户觉得占便宜。套餐价格比单买各单品总价便宜几元，但总体来说套餐价格并不便宜，仍然高。

我们不可避免地偶尔要吃快餐，所以必须了解一些常见优惠，聪明地花钱，花钱花得明白。

下面分析一下 Popeyes 的一些优惠。

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第一个十分受欢迎的优惠是 Big Box。现在的组合为 2 signature chicken + 2 regular sides + 1 biscuit，总价 $8.00 + tax。一年前有人对此 Big Box 做过视频评价，点这里查看。六年前是 $5.00，一年前是 $6.99，现在是 $8.00。以前有 2 tenders 的选择，现在没有。从视频中可以看出，鸡胸和鸡大腿裹的面糊很多，面糊越多，其内的油也越多。

第二个十分受欢迎的优惠是 BOGO 6 wings。上周推出的优惠是买六个鸡翅，送六个鸡翅，需六个无骨鸡翅和六个有骨鸡翅搭配，只需 $8.99，但最低消费为 $12.00。加前一篇文章介绍的一个超值最爱菜品，如 Spicy Mini Chicken Wrap，或者一个配菜，比如土豆泥配卡津肉汁（Mashed Potatoes with Cajun Gravy），就足够了。

BOGO 是 buy one get one 的首字母缩写。

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类似麦当劳等，手机 App 上也有一些优惠，根据自己的需要选择。

例如，目前手机上有：

Group deal: 10Pc Tender Family Meal
10 Pc Tenders, 4 Regular Sides, 4 Biscuits
$32.99

Deal for 2:  12Pc Bone-In or Boneless Wings 2 Can Dine
12 Pc Wings (Boneless or Bone-In), 2 Regular Sides
$18.99

Deal for 2: Classic Chicken Sandwich 2 Can Dine
2 Classic Chicken Sandwiches and 2 Regular Sides
$18.99

2Pc Signature Chicken and Poutine Dinner
2 Pc Signature Chicken, Poutine, and 1 Biscuit
$11.99

Blackened Deluxe Chicken Sandwich Dinner
Blackened Deluxe Chicken Sandwich, 1 Regular Side
$8.99

8Pc Nuggets Dinner
8Pc Chicken Nuggets, 1 Regular Side, and 1 Biscuit
$8.49

Two Pies
2 Pies
$2.99

A Large Side
$5.00

对比最受欢迎的两个优惠以及网站上的套餐价格，这些优惠并没有提供太多让利，主要在配菜上下功夫让客户感觉不错。

另外，都没有配蘸料，难道是默认会给蘸料吗？

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Popeyes 还会通过 Canada Post 给每家每户发送纸质 coupons，这些优惠比手机上的优惠可能再额外让利一点。

下面列出截止到 2025 年 3 月 31 日有效的 coupons。

610 - 1,770 Cals per Serving, Serves 2
2 CAN DINE DINNER
$15.99+Tax
Includes: 5PC Signature Chicken or Tenders, 2 Regular Sides and 2 Biscuits

没有蘸酱？

这类似于上面手机上的 Group deal: 10Pc Tender Family Meal，但让利略多，但是下面的 2 CAN DINE TENDERS 更好一些。

300 - 660 Cals per Serving, Serves 5
10PC LEGS & THIGHS SPECIAL
$22.99+Tax
Includes: 2 Large Sides with 5 Biscuits

1,450 - 3,350 Cals per Serving, Serves 5
10 PC MEAL
$35.00+Tax
Includes: 2 Large Sides with 5 Biscuits

160 - 680 Cals per Serving, Serves 4
2 SANDWICH COMBOS
$19.99+Tax
Includes: 2 Regular Sides with 2 Drinks

710 - 1,750 Cals per Serving, Serves 2
2 CAN DINE TENDERS
$17.99+Tax
Includes: 6 Tenders, 2 Regular Sides, 2 Biscuits, 2 Medium Drinks and 2 Signature Dipping Sauces

只有这个明确说明了给两份蘸酱。

Popeyes Canada 菜单

我之前居住了十几年的城市，只在市中心有一家 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen，而我住在城郊，因此那家店我只路过，没品尝过。现在我居住的地方，最近的一家 Popeyes 有点远，所在位置进出极为不便，且是车祸频发地段，所以我一般都去本来就更近、更熟悉的 McDonald's、Tim Hortons 或 A&W 等快餐连锁。另外，Popeyes 的主要菜品都与鸡肉相关，我不知道如何选择。最近我尝过两次 Popeyes，觉得还行，身边的人对它也赞许有加，正好在我附近的商业区新开了一家店，交通便利一些，也与我一周去几次的健身房在同一条路上，相隔不远。于是，我就决定研究一下 Popeyes 的菜单。

如果将鸡柳（chicken tenders）和鸡块（chicken nuggets）分类算，Popeyes 的食品分为十大类，分别是：

1. signature chicken - 招牌鸡肉
2. wings - 鸡翅
3. tenders - 鸡柳
4. nuggets - 鸡块
5. seafood - 海鲜
6. sandwiches - 鸡肉三明治
7. signature sides - 招牌配菜
8. signature dipping sauces - 招牌蘸酱
9. desserts - 甜品
10. beverages - 饮料

再加上近期推出的“超值最爱 ”（value favourites）经济实惠餐，那么就是十一大类。

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饮料（beverages）包括四种瓶装饮料和十种自助饮料。

瓶装饮料有以下四种，一律 $2.79 一瓶：

1. Bottle Minute Maid Lemonade - 瓶装 Minute Maid 柠檬水
2. Bottle Minute Maid Apple Juice - 瓶装 Minute Maid 苹果汁
3. Bottle Minute Maid Orange Juice - 瓶装 Minute Maid 橙汁
4. Bottle Dasani - 瓶装 Dasani 矿泉水

自助饮料（Fountain Drinks）有：

• Coca-Cola - 可口可乐
• Diet Coke - 健怡可乐
• Coke Zero - 零度无糖可乐
• Canada Dry - 姜味汽水
• Barq's Root Beer - 巴克根汁汽水
• Fanta - 芬达
• Fruitopia - 果缤纷
• Lemonade - 柠檬水
• Fuze Iced Tea - 富滋冰茶
• Sprite - 雪碧

自助饮料分小杯（$2.29）、中杯（$2.49）、大杯（$2.79）三种。价格都虚高。

除了 Canada Dry 是 Keurig Dr Pepper 公司的饮品，其余饮料全部是可口可乐公司的。富滋冰茶（Fuze Iced Tea）是可口可乐公司近些年重点推介的产品。

单买这些饮料的人，都属于钱多得没处花。

Minute Maid 这个品牌属于可口可乐公司，在中国叫做“美汁源”。

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甜品（desserts）有两种：

1. Cinnamon Apple Pie - 肉桂苹果派
2. Strawberry Cream Cheese Fried Pie - 草莓奶酪炸派

价钱都是 $1.99，这样的价钱能做出什么甜品？外壳派皮都是炸制的，也算是 Popeyes 的风格和独创，但不那么讨喜。

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招牌蘸酱（signature dipping sauces / signature sauces / sauces）有四种，一律 $0.39，分别是：

• Buttermilk Ranch（酪乳牧场酱） - 传统牧场酱，无辣味
• Bayou Buffalo（拜优布法罗酱） - 以卡宴辣椒（Cayenne pepper）为主，美国南部风味
• Blackened Ranch（焦香牧场酱） - 调味料腌制后迅速煎烤，带焦香味，辣味适中
• Wild Honey Mustard（野生蜂蜜芥末酱） - 加蜂蜜的芥末，甜味为主

很明显，拜优布法罗酱是 Popeyes 的特色蘸酱，而焦香牧场酱则为传统牧场蘸酱增添了风味。其余两种较为常见，虽然本人比较喜欢 Honey Mustard。

不知道拜优布法罗酱的辣味与麦当劳的 Habanero Sauce 相比如何。虽然哈瓦那辣椒的辣度是卡宴辣椒的几倍，但是做出来的效果不知道差别有多大。

“Bayou” 的标准英文发音为 /ˈbaɪ.juː/，听起来类似 “拜优”。这一发音中，第一个音节 “bay” 发音像 “buy”，而 “you” 则保留其常见发音。“Bayou” 源自法语，原指美国南部，尤其是路易斯安那州那种缓流的小河或沼泽水道。这些水道水流缓慢，环境常带有浓郁的湿地特色。现该词也常用来形容美国南部独有的文化和风味。在调味酱命名中使用 “Bayou”，旨在传达一种南部风情和独特风味的印象。

Buffalo，纽约州的水牛城布法罗，布法罗鸡翅十分有名，著名连锁店是 Buffalo Wild Wings，其酱汁以其独特的风味和辣度而闻名，是美式餐饮中不可或缺的一部分。

“Cayenne” 的英文发音为 /kaɪˈɛn/，听起来类似 “凯恩”。保时捷的 Cayenne 车型中文叫“卡宴”，是从原本的法语本源音译过来的。卡宴辣椒常被研磨成粉末，用作调味料，味道较辣。

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招牌配菜（signature sides）如下：

1. 卷心菜沙拉（Coleslaw）
   • 常规卷心菜沙拉 – $3.49 | 190 卡
   • 大份卷心菜沙拉 – $7.49 | 740 卡
2. 卡津薯条（Cajun Fries）
   • 常规卡津薯条 – $3.49 | 270 卡
   • 中份卡津薯条 – $5.19 | 780 卡
   • 大份卡津薯条 – $7.49 | 1,350 卡
3. 卡津普丁（Cajun Poutine）
   • 卡津普丁 – $7.19 | 720 卡
4. 洋葱圈（Onion Rings）
   • 常规洋葱圈 – $3.49 | 360 卡
   • 中份洋葱圈 – $5.19 | 975 卡
   • 大份洋葱圈 – $7.49 | 1,080 卡
5. 土豆泥配卡津肉汁（Mashed Potatoes with Cajun Gravy）
   • 常规土豆泥配卡津肉汁 – $3.49 | 110 卡
   • 大份土豆泥配卡津肉汁 – $7.49 | 310 卡
6. 奶酪通心粉（Macaroni and Cheese）
   • 常规奶酪通心粉 – $3.49 | 180 卡
   • 大份奶酪通心粉 – $7.49 | 570 卡
7. 卡津肉汁（Cajun Gravy）
   • 常规卡津肉汁 – $2.99 | 150 卡
   • 大份卡津肉汁 – $5.99 | 350 卡
8. 饼干（Biscuit）
   • 1 个饼 – $0.99 | 220 卡
   • 6 个饼 – $5.79 | 1,320 卡
   • 12 个饼 – $9.79 | 2,640 卡

Popeyes 的一个特色是在套餐中一般都会送饼干，所以一般不会再单独点饼干。其它选择中，土豆泥配卡津肉汁结合了薯条、肉汁等几种配菜的特色，应该是最受欢迎的一种。

会点蘸酱和配菜十分重要。

配菜价格也是虚高，单买也没有必要。

“Cajun” 的英文发音为 /ˈkeɪʒən/，听起来类似 “凯-zhun”，其中 “zhun” 的发音与 “vision” 中的 “sion” 相近。“Cajun” 指的是居住在美国路易斯安那州的一个族群——Cajun 族。他们的祖先主要是 17 世纪被流放出加拿大的阿卡迪亚人（Acadians），在路易斯安那州定居，并形成了独特的文化和生活方式。同时，“Cajun” 也用来形容与这一族群相关的文化、语言、音乐和美食，例如著名的 “Cajun 料理”，以其浓郁辛辣、风味独特而闻名。

“Cole”来自荷兰语的Kool，意为“甘蓝”。Slaw 指一种切碎的生蔬菜沙拉，但有时也可以泛指其他类似的沙拉，比如 Broccoli slaw、Apple slaw 等。

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海鲜（seafood）主要有两种。

第一种是蝴蝶虾（Butterfly Shrimp），是将大虾切割处理炸出蝴蝶状。

1. Butterfly Shrimp
   (Butterfly Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce)
   $8.69 | 300 Cals
2. Butterfly Shrimp Combo
   (Butterfly Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce + 1 regular side + 1 Medium Beverage + 1 biscuit)
   $11.19 | 630 - 1,550 Cals
3. Butterfly Shrimp Lg Combo
   (Butterfly Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce + 2 regular sides + 1 Large Beverage + 1 biscuit)
   $13.29 | 740 - 2,430 Cals

第二种是爆米花虾（Popcorn Shrimp），小虾裹面糊炸制而成。

1. Popcorn Shrimp
   (Popcorn Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce)
   $7.69 | 450 Cals
2. Popcorn Shrimp Combo
   (Popcorn Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce + 1 regular side + 1 Medium Beverage + 1 biscuit)
   $10.19 | 780 - 1,700 Cals
3. Popcorn Shrimp Lg Combo
   (Popcorn Shrimp + 1 Signature Sauce + 2 regular sides + 1 Large Beverage + 1 biscuit)
   $12.29 | 890 - 2,580 Cals

来 Popeyes 主要是吃炸鸡，海鲜并非特色，并不是最佳选择，可以直接忽视。

下面回到鸡肉相关的菜品，这才是重点，虽然上面的配菜和蘸料也很重要。

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鸡肉三明治（chicken sandwiches）有三种，分别是：

1. blackened deluxe chicken sandwich - 焦香尊享鸡肉三明治
2. chicken sandwich - 鸡肉三明治
3. deluxe chicken sandwich。- 尊享鸡肉三明治

每种都有 Classic 和 Spicy 两种风味。

Popeyes 的鸡肉三明治是由两片表皮金黄的黄油面包夹一块鸡肉饼、两片腌黄瓜和涂抹一些蛋黄酱（mayo），价钱是$7.99。

尊享鸡肉三明治则多加了生菜和番茄切片，比普通的三明治多了一元钱。

焦香尊享鸡肉三明治的鸡肉饼使用焦香调料，与尊享鸡肉三明治一样的价钱，$8.99。

腌黄瓜和蛋黄酱可选择有无。

每种都有常规套餐（额外 1 regular side + 1 Medium beverage）和大号套餐（额外 2 regular sides + 1 Large beverage）。

有些人，尤其是一些白人，专门把三明治里的生菜或/和番茄切片挑出来扔掉，那么普通的鸡肉三明治很适合此类人。

注重健康或者口味的人肯定选择焦香尊享鸡肉，它的卡路里低，但是蛋白质含量与豪华肌肉三明治差不多。

蛋黄酱的英文全称是 Mayonnaise，发音是 /ˈmeɪəneɪz/，读作 “梅-呃-内-兹”。一般点单时都简化为 Mayo，发音为 /ˈmeɪ.oʊ/，读作 “梅欧”。

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鸡柳（tenders）是由鸡胸肉切割、整形后经过多道工序炸制而成，分为微辣（Mild）和辣（Spicy）两种辣度。

3Pc 鸡柳的单买和套餐的搭配如下：

3Pc Tenders (3Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce)
$8.79 | 350 Cals

3Pc Tenders Combo (3Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce + 1 regular side + 1 Medium Beverage + 1 biscuit)
$12.29 | 680 - 1,600 Cals

3Pc Tenders Lg Combo (3Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce + 2 regular side + 1 Large Beverage + 1 biscuit)
$14.29 | 790 - 2,480 Cals

5Pc 鸡柳的单买和套餐的搭配如下：

5Pc Tenders (5Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce)
$13.29 | 570 Cals

5Pc Tenders Combo (5Pc Tenders + 1 Sauce + 1 regular side + 1 Medium Beverage + 1 biscuit)
$15.29 | 900 - 1,820 Cals

5Pc Tenders Lg Combo (5Pc Tenders + 2 Sauce + 2 regular side + 1 Large Beverage + 1 biscuit)
$17.29 | 1,010 - 2,700 Cals

更多数量的选项没有套餐选择：

8Pc Tenders + 3 Sauces
$21.29 | 910 Cals

12Pc Tenders + 4 Sauces
$29.79 | 1,370 Cals

16Pc Tenders + 5 Sauces
$38.49 | 1,830 Cals

20Pc Tenders + 6 Sauces
$46.79 | 2,290 Cals

12Pc、16Pc 和 20Pc 鸡柳还有 Family Meal，只是分别多价了 4、6、8 个饼干。

单只鸡柳的价格大约$2.30~$3.00之间。

一般来说，3块鸡柳的套餐是一个人的量；5块鸡柳的套餐是两个人的量。

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鸡块（nuggets）是将鸡肉切割成小块后炸制而成。在鸡块和鸡柳之间，我认为应优先选择鸡柳，虽然鸡柳肉质较干，但口感和肉质来源较为明确。当然，如果鸡块不是用鸡肉糜压制而成，且口感也不错，也可以接受。

单买鸡块时，有 8、12、24、36 块的选择。8 块和 12 块还有常规套餐和大套餐两种配置，这种大套餐称为拼盘（Platter），因为众多鸡块、蘸料和配菜堆满一个盘子。

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鸡翅（wings）分为无骨鸡翅（boneless wings）和带骨鸡翅（bone-in wings）。无骨鸡翅通常由鸡胸肉切割成块状或条状后加工处理炸制而成。Popeyes 称其使用精选的嫩滑全白肉，即鸡胸肉。鸡胸肉和带骨鸡翅均为白肉，而鸡腿和鸡大腿为黑肉。从制作工艺来看，无骨鸡翅与鸡柳区别不大，但在新一代年轻人中更受欢迎，推入市场的历史不长。带骨鸡翅则口感更丰富，较健康，因为无骨鸡翅在加工过程中增加了大量的钠和碳水化合物。从 Popeyes Canada 提供的营养表也能看出这一点。

无骨鸡翅和带骨鸡翅均有 6、12、24 块的选择，6 块和 12 块还有常规套餐和大号套餐两种配置。

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招牌鸡肉（Signature Chicken）包含鸡胸（breast）、鸡腿（leg）、鸡大腿（thigh）和鸡翅（wing），其中鸡胸和鸡翅为白肉，鸡腿和鸡大腿为黑肉。

8、12、16、20 块的配餐均为鸡胸、鸡腿、鸡大腿和鸡翅的组合。

2 块、3 块和 4 块的配餐只能选择常规套餐或大号套餐，且必须选全黑肉（即鸡腿或鸡大腿）或白肉与黑肉搭配。这也说明白肉较优。

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Popeyes 还有 “超值最爱” 菜品（value favourites），价格统一 $4.00。有些优惠增加了最低消费要求，比如 Popeyes 经常推出的 BOGO 6 Wings 优惠，买 6 个鸡翅再送 6 个鸡翅，总价只需 $8.99，但该优惠需达到最低消费 $12.00，此时加一个 “超值最爱” 菜品即可。

“超值最爱” 菜品如下：

• Classic / Spicy Mini Chicken Sandwich $4.00 | 450 Cals
• Classic / Spicy Mini Chicken Wrap $4.00 | 490 Cals
• Fried Pickles $4.00 | 250 Cals
• Blackened Cauliflower $4.00 | 310 Cals
• 5Pc Nuggets $4.00 | 320 Cals

很明显，为了填饱肚子，小鸡肉卷和小鸡肉三明治是最佳选择。

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油炸食品虽然香，但不健康。炸鸡类食物偶尔吃可以，不能常吃。

Popeyes 的鸡肉，无论哪一种，都裹了大量的面糊，相比其它鸡肉店，比如 Wild Wing，鸡肉少很多，做得差很多。

另外，大统华的豉油鸡或盐焗鸡，整只售价 $12.99，既健康又便宜，还有吃鸡肉吐骨头的乐趣。还有卤水鸡腿。还新推出了奥尔良烤鸡、奥尔良烤鸡腿、奥尔良烤鸡翼。我认为都比 Popeyes 的炸鸡好。

股票资本利得税 vs 相应的股票回调百分比

假设你以100元买入某只股票，如今股价已经上涨不少。如果你此时卖出，就会产生资本利得（capital gain），从而需要缴纳相应的资本利得税；而如果选择继续持有，股票虽已大幅上涨，但未来可能面临回调。那么，到底该不该卖出呢？在很多投资者的脑子里，这是一个挥之不去的问题。这牵涉到许多因素，很多因素是不确定的，并非轻易能做出决定。巴菲特曾表示，一旦买入一只股票，最好能够长期持有。这是美好的愿望。有时我们必须做出取舍。因此，我们必须清楚明白：你需缴纳的资本利得税，其比例大致相当于当前股票价格回调的幅度。这些数字是确定的。

假设初始投资本金仍为100元。目前，加拿大的资本利得纳入率为50%，而2025年安大略省的资本利得税最高边际税率为26.76%，假定这就是你的税率。

以下是计算结果：

股票增长百分比	当前市值	资本利得	资本利得税	对应的股票回调幅度
50%	150	$50.00	$6.69	-4.46%
100%	200	$100.00	$13.38	-6.69%
150%	250	$150.00	$20.07	-8.03%
200%	300	$200.00	$26.76	-8.92%
250%	350	$250.00	$33.45	-9.56%
300%	400	$300.00	$40.14	-10.04%

在大多数长期投资组合中，比如持有股票十年左右，不少股票通常可以实现约100%的涨幅。此时卖出，所需缴纳的资本利得税相当于6.69%的股票回调幅度，而这种回调幅度十分常见。

即便是一只涨幅高达300%的优质股票，卖出时缴纳的资本利得税对应的回调幅度也仅约为10.04%，基本与市场回调（Market Correction）的幅度相当。事实上，市场每年往往会经历一至两次这样的回调。而那些涨幅极高的优质股票，本身已足以经受住偶尔发生的回调，因此持有时间很长且涨幅已经十分可观时，在基本面没有发生什么大的变化的情况，通常也无需卖出。

综上所述，从上表数据来看，资本利得税对投资者而言是非常友好的。税负只是次要因素，关键在于挑选优质股票并实现显著增值。另一方面，对于长期投资者来说，若能持续延税，实现高回报，根本无需卖出。比如，巴菲特持有的可口可乐和美国运通几十年，可以做到几十年不缴纳利得税，长期延税，减少卖出买入损耗。理想情况下，持有这样的股票是最优策略；若无法做到这一点，那么在适当时机果断卖出也是明智之举。