以一对五十多岁的婴儿潮一代夫妇为例,他们的RRSP账户中有283,349加元;这对已成为空巢老人的夫妇,其子女已帮他们偿还了大学学费。他们依然拥有房地产,因此拥有一定的股权投资。相比之下,普通股和共同基金的市值经常波动,到了退休时,这些资产的市场价值难以确定。虽然传统的单只债券有明确的到期日,但它们通常会伴随恼人的半年度利息支付,而这些利息往往没有及时再投资,从而给RRSP带来额外的麻烦。
随着退休日期的临近,投资者越发渴望资产的确定性。剥离债券(zero coupon bond,或者,stripped bond)来提供了一个明确的优势:可以让投资者准确预知退休时账户中名义金额的数值,从而在一定程度上缓解未来不确定性带来的担忧。
第一种情况,考虑这对夫妇不再有额外供款,通过购买一只十年期的剥离债券进行投资——即Ontario Hydro 0%,于2015年11月26日到期。该债券的购买价格为64.18,加上到期收益率4.49%,因此账户终值=$283,349/0.6418=$464,111加元。
上面的例子展示了如何确保账户在未来达到一个确定的终值,但它并不能保证这个终值的实际购买力,因为我们无法预知未来十年内通货膨胀的走势。为了防范通胀可能对这一数额造成的侵蚀,我们采用了阶梯式投资方法——允许每年进行再投资,从而平滑应对通胀对最终价值的影响。
下表显示了2005年12月1日时阶梯式投资组合的详细情况:
Issuer | Coupon | Maturity | Quantity | Price | S/A Yield | Ann Equiv | Total Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B.C. | 0.000% | Dec. 18/06 | $ 35,000.00 | 97.00 | 2.932% | 2.953% | $33,950.00 |
Ontario | 0.000% | Dec. 2/07 | $ 35,000.00 | 94.06 | 3.081% | 3.105% | $32,921.00 |
B.C. | 0.000% | Dec. 1/08 | $ 35,000.00 | 90.65 | 3.248% | 3.275% | $31,727.50 |
B.C. | 0.000% | Dec. 18/09 | $ 35,000.00 | 86.97 | 3.480% | 3.510% | $30,439.50 |
Ontario | 0.000% | Dec. 2/10 | $ 35,000.00 | 83.28 | 3.691% | 3.725% | $29,148.00 |
Quebec | 0.000% | Dec. 1/11 | $ 35,000.00 | 79.17 | 3.931% | 3.970% | $27,709.50 |
B.C. | 0.000% | Dec. 18/12 | $ 35,000.00 | 75.08 | 4.109% | 4.151% | $26,278.00 |
Ontario | 0.000% | Dec. 2/13 | $ 35,000.00 | 71.42 | 4.251% | 4.296% | $24,997.00 |
Ontario | 0.000% | Dec. 2/14 | $ 35,000.00 | 67.76 | 4.370% | 4.418% | $23,716.00 |
Ont. Hyd. | 0.000% | Dec. 26/15 | $ 35,000.00 | 64.18 | 4.491% | 4.541% | $22,463.00 |
$350,000.00 | 4.246% | 4.29% | $283,349.50 |
正如上表所示,该投资组合的未来价值正好为350,000加元,比这对夫妇最初需要投入的资金多出66,650加元,这就是所谓的“睡得安稳”的组合。我们本可以仅选择上面所示的2015年到期债券,在那种情况下,未来价值会更高(283,349 ÷ 0.6418 = 464,111加元);然而,这样做会使投资者面临较大的再投资风险。如果在此期间利率急剧上升,他们将没有资金抓住更高的收益机会。相比之下,利用阶梯式投资组合,每年都有部分债券到期并可用于再投资,从而降低了再投资风险。也因此,上述350,000加元的未来价值只是一个初步数字,实际最终金额还会更高,因为每次到期的债券本金或利息都将通过再投资进一步累积,增加最终的账户价值。
一年后该阶梯式投资组合如下表:
Issuer | Coupon | Maturity | Quantity | Price | YTM | Ann. Equiv. | Total Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/07 | $35,000.00 | $96.98 | 3.082% | 3.105% | $33,943.00 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/08 | $35,000.00 | $93.62 | 3.246% | 3.273% | $32,767.00 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/09 | $35,000.00 | $90.02 | 3.480% | 3.511% | $31,507.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/10 | $35,000.00 | $86.38 | 3.691% | 3.726% | $30,233.00 |
Quebec | 0 | Dec 1/11 | $35,000.00 | $82.31 | 3.932% | 3.970% | $28,808.50 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/12 | $35,000.00 | $78.20 | 4.108% | 4.150% | $27,370.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/13 | $35,000.00 | $74.48 | 4.252% | 4.297% | $26,068.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/14 | $35,000.00 | $70.75 | 4.371% | 4.419% | $24,762.50 |
Ont. Hydro | 0 | Nov 26/15 | $35,000.00 | $67.09 | 4.491% | 4.542% | $23,481.50 |
Manitoba | 0 | Sept 5/16 | $54,816.00 | $63.85 | 4.649% | 4.703% | $35,000.02 |
$369,816.00 | 3.930% | 3.970% | $293,940.52 |
再一年后,也就是2007年,该阶梯式的投资组合如下表:
Issuer | Coupon | Maturity | Quantity | Price | YTM | Ann. Equiv. | Total Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B.C. | 0 | Dec. 18/08 | $35,000.00 | $96.43 | 3.502% | 3.532% | $33,750.50 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec. 18/09 | $35,000.00 | $92.34 | 3.931% | 3.969% | $32,319.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec. 2/10 | $35,000.00 | $88.90 | 3.957% | 3.996% | $31,115.00 |
Quebec | 0 | Dec. 1/11 | $35,000.00 | $84.85 | 4.150% | 4.193% | $29,697.50 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec. 18/12 | $35,000.00 | $81.68 | 4.050% | 4.091% | $28,588.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec. 2/13 | $35,000.00 | $78.22 | 4.134% | 4.177% | $27,377.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec. 2/14 | $35,000.00 | $74.94 | 4.162% | 4.206% | $26,229.00 |
Ont. Hydro | 0 | Nov. 26/15 | $35,000.00 | $72.00 | 4.156% | 4.199% | $25,200.00 |
Manitoba | 0 | Sept. 5/16 | $54,816.00 | $68.87 | 4.303% | 4.349% | $37,751.78 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec. 18/17 | $54,390.05 | $64.35 | 4.436% | 4.485% | $35,000.00 |
$389,206.05 | 4.080% | 4.120% | $307,027.78 |
再一年后,也就是2008年,该阶梯式的投资组合如下表:
Issuer | Coupon | Maturity | Quantity | Price | YTM | Ann. Equiv. | Total Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/09 | $35,000.00 | $96.00 | 3.936% | 3.975% | $33,600.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/10 | $35,000.00 | $92.45 | 3.958% | 3.997% | $32,357.50 |
Quebec | 0 | Dec 1/11 | $35,000.00 | $88.40 | 4.152% | 4.196% | $30,940.00 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/12 | $35,000.00 | $85.00 | 4.056% | 4.097% | $29,750.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/13 | $35,000.00 | $81.50 | 4.131% | 4.174% | $28,525.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/14 | $35,000.00 | $78.10 | 4.160% | 4.204% | $27,335.00 |
Ont. Hydro | 0 | Nov. 26/15 | $35,000.00 | $75.00 | 4.161% | 4.204% | $26,250.00 |
Manitoba | 0 | Sept. 5/16 | $54,816.00 | $71.88 | 4.300% | 4.346% | $39,401.74 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/17 | $54,390.05 | $67.29 | 4.427% | 4.476% | $36,599.06 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/18 | $58,333.00 | $60.00 | 5.173% | 5.239% | $34,999.80 |
$412,539.05 | 4.245% | 4.291% | $319,758.11 |
再一年后,也就是2009年,该阶梯式的投资组合如下表:
Issuer | Coupon | Maturity | Quantity | Price | YTM | Ann. Equiv. | Total Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/10 | $35,000.00 | $99.05 | 1.001% | 1.004% | $34,667.50 |
Quebec | 0 | Dec 1/11 | $35,000.00 | $96.85 | 1.646% | 1.653% | $33,897.50 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/12 | $35,000.00 | $93.26 | 2.340% | 2.353% | $32,641.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/13 | $35,000.00 | $89.72 | 2.761% | 2.780% | $31,402.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/14 | $35,000.00 | $85.78 | 3.119% | 3.144% | $30,023.00 |
Ont. Hydro | 0 | Nov 26/15 | $35,000.00 | $81.72 | 3.428% | 3.458% | $28,602.00 |
Manitoba | 0 | Sept 5/16 | $54,816.00 | $77.46 | 3.841% | 3.877% | $42,460.47 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/17 | $54,390.05 | $71.82 | 4.181% | 4.224% | $39,062.93 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/18 | $58,333.00 | $67.45 | 4.446% | 4.495% | $39,345.61 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/19 | $54,988.00 | $63.65 | 4.569% | 4.621% | $34,999.86 |
$432,527.05 | 3.133% | 3.161% | $347,101.88 |
再一年后,也就是2010年,该阶梯式的投资组合如下表:
Issuer | Coupon | Maturity | Quantity | Price | YTM | Ann. Equiv. | Total Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quebec | 0 | Dec 1/11 | $35,000.00 | $98.50 | 1.521% | 1.527% | $34,475.00 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/12 | $35,000.00 | $96.07 | 1.971% | 1.980% | $33,624.50 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/13 | $35,000.00 | $93.02 | 2.426% | 2.441% | $32,557.00 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/14 | $35,000.00 | $89.85 | 2.694% | 2.712% | $31,447.50 |
Ont. Hydro | 0 | Nov 26/15 | $35,000.00 | $86.09 | 3.028% | 3.051% | $30,131.50 |
Manitoba | 0 | Sept 5/16 | $54,816.00 | $82.86 | 3.292% | 3.319% | $45,420.54 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/17 | $54,390.05 | $77.11 | 3.724% | 3.759% | $41,940.17 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/18 | $58,333.00 | $73.29 | 3.922% | 3.961% | $42,752.26 |
B.C. | 0 | Dec 18/19 | $54,988.00 | $69.00 | 4.145% | 4.188% | $37,941.72 |
Ontario | 0 | Dec 2/20 | $53,558.00 | $65.35 | 4.300% | 4.346% | $35,000.15 |
$451,085.05 | 3.102% | 3.128% | $365,290.33 |
显而易见,将到期的每一笔票息再投资于一只十年期的零息债券会使未来价值稳步提升——从2005年的35万加元增加到2010年的45.1085万加元,而组合的总市值则从283,349加元增至365,290加元!
这消除了这对夫妇在退休规划中需要对利率进行猜测的风险。这与共同债券基金或ETF形成了鲜明对比,在那种情况下,未来价值直到资金需要时才能确定,而且投资者也无法选择债券的到期结构。这样,我们就同时消除了两种再投资风险——既没有需要再投资的利息支付,又通过阶梯式到期安排避免了将所有资金“放进一个篮子里”的风险。
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